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Month: April 2020

COVID-19. Where are we now? What can we do? What does the future hold? Part XVIII of Glimmer of hope (30-April-2020) Graph and much of this blog page derives from Eppinger and Rueping Summary Despite early warnings, the COVID-19 pandemic took the world by surprise. An effective vaccine remains the world’s best hope. Individuals can […]

Scotland vs. the United Kingdom Part XVII of Glimmer of hope (28-April-2020)   Summary In terms of the course of COVID-19 infections Scotland leads the United Kingdom by two to three days. New COVID-19 infections rose slightly more rapidly to peak in Scotland than in the United Kingdom. Cases of new infections are now declining. […]

Prof. Roy Thompson vs. the UK’s Chief Medical Officer Part XVI of Glimmer of hope. (27-April-2020)   Summary 5 minutes ago today (18:00 27th April) the Chief Medical Officer for England said the country is not “consistently” past the peak of coronavirus deaths. 4 minutes ago (18:01 27th April) I reconfirmed (graph below), using the […]

Recap of postings on: I ‘Glimmer of hope’ II ‘COVID-19 and the Edinburgh congestion charge’ ————————————————————————————— I Glimmer of hope Part XXV (3-July-2020) EVERYONE Sitting at the intersection of craft, science and design, EVERYONE considers the environmental impact of Covid19 lockdown on Edinburgh through the medium of a large scale tapestry. Part XXIV (13-June-2020) COVID-19, […]

Beware the sting in the tail… Part XV of Glimmer of hope. (24-April-2020) Summary How will you first know when the COVID19 crisis is over and that it has become safe to abandon social distancing? Read this blog of course. Deaths must lag behind infections. Nevertheless, although it may seem counterintuitive, my current advice is […]

Does Vallance show balance? Part XIV of Glimmer of hope. (23-April-2020) Summary Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance tonight (23 April) said he expects COVID-19 deaths to ‘plateau’ for the next couple of weeks but will then come down ‘faster’ after that. I disagree. The UK is well past peak. Both reported deaths and new […]

UK COVID-19 model consistently forecasts a rapid decline in daily deaths Part XIII of Glimmer of hope. (21-April-2020)   Summary UK deaths can be expected to be below 100 a day by 2nd May (in 11 days time) as long as restrictions are not relaxed. In hindsight My first COVID-19 prediction was posted 15 days […]

Predicting the pandemic: is COVID-19 modelling useful? Part XII of Glimmer of hope. (20-April-2020) “It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all.” – Henri Poincaré (1854 – 1912). Summary Modelling lies at the heart of understanding how the COVID-19 pandemic is spreading and evolving. Models take centre stage […]

Testing, testing, testing Part XI of Glimmer of hope. (19-April-2020)   Summary There are serious calls for over a thousand million tests to be made in the USA alone during the COVID-19 epidemic. The aim would be to restore the USA to some normality as quickly as possible. More labs, machines, technicians and health workers […]

When will we know the coronavirus battle is over? Part X of Glimmer of hope. (16-April-2020) Summary Planning a road map to reopening economies is not going to be easy. Lives have to be weighed against livelihoods. Hubbert’s peak-oil mathematics can offer a helping hand. It can help distinguish an emerging 2nd peak (requiring a […]


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