Glimmer of Hope XVI

Prof. Roy Thompson vs. the UK’s Chief Medical Officer

Part XVI of Glimmer of hope. (27-April-2020)

Summary

5 minutes ago today (18:00 27th April) the Chief Medical Officer for England said the country is not “consistently” past the peak of coronavirus deaths.

4 minutes ago (18:01 27th April) I reconfirmed (graph below), using the latest Government data, that the UK actually passed peak 17.5 days ago.

Data and model fits at left, forecasts at right. Red – Cases. Blue – Deaths. Green curve – projected Cases. Black curve – projected Deaths. Pink – illustrates range of plausible Cases trajectories. Cyan – illustrates range of plausible Deaths trajectories. Vertical green and purple lines – dates of peak. All data presented as proportion of peak (modelled peak values in legend).

Although the confidence limits remain large on the projected trajectory the overall form of the epidemic is becoming clearer. Peak recorded deaths (in hospitals) and peak new infections are both over. The model projects recorded deaths as dropping to just over 10% of peak (90 to 100 daily recorded deaths) in around 26 days time. Reported cases are projected to drop less slowly presumably because of more extensive testing inclusing a wider range of individuals.

NB. I am not suggesting we are anywhere near the time to unlock. I am saying that the UK Government’s analysis of the timing of peak is completely wrong. I conclude that the scientific analysis of COVID-19 has become over politicised both here and in America. The UK Government would do well to change course and follow the Swedish approach as it contemplates our future. There the whole situation is handled by experts and not by politicians. Far fewer mistakes and misjudgements have been made. By tradition Swedes have a big trust in their authorities and so are willing to listen and follow their advise. A more open, transparent approach will be needed here if UK public trust is to be carried through the really difficult times ahead.

Prof. Roy Thompson vs. the UK’s Chief Medical Officer

Question: Why the discreopancy in our conclusions as to the timing of peak? Answer: We must be looking at totally different data sets.

If the Chief Medical Officer for England has other data than is being passed to the World Health Authority and to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (the world’s major COVID-19 repository) – which is my source of data plus a daily 18:00 update by the BBC – then why doesn’t he reveal it to the UK public.

I continue not to trust Governmental information and analysis about COVID-19. Time will tell who is correct about the timing of the 1st peak. I’ll leave you to decide who to believe.