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Month: May 2020

Weight gain and lockdown: empiricism vs. physical modelling   Summary Life in lockdown has disrupted our daily lives, creating the perfect setup for putting on pounds. In a poll of 1,000 people, nearly half of the women and almost one-quarter of the men reported that they had gained weight “due to COVID-19 restrictions”. I presume […]

Can predictive curve-fitting models pass that most pragmatic ‘litmus test’, namely usefulness? In recent days I have been posting blog pages about a geostatistical technique popularized by Marion King-Hubbert for analysing oil reserves, but instead applied here to curve-fitting COVID-19 epidemics. In particular I have tried to forecast the future trajectory and magnitude of the […]

Coronavirus lockdown: the end is in sight! Summary The end is clearly in sight. Let me qualify that statement slightly – the end of phase 1 of the COVID-19 pandemic across Europe is definitely in sight. Right-handed, fat-tailed lemur.   Forecast As we have seen in this series of blog pages epidemiologists find predicting pandemics […]

UK and Scottish coronavirus mortalities: how many more deaths will there be?   Summary The UK and Italy have been following very similar COVID-19 pathways. Italy being 15 days ahead, the UK with worse mortality rates. Taking data from the cruise ship Diamond Princess at face value Neil Ferguson’s intervention, which altered the course of […]

  Edinburgh St John’s Road air-quality monitoring site.  ID: ED1 Environment Type Kerbside Coordinates (Lat/Long) 55.942500, -3.281111 Altitude 53m Kerb Distance 0.5 Site Comments The nearest road is 0.5m from the site. Summary Good news. Concentrations of pollutants, especially those mainly emitted by road transport have shown a sharp drop in many European cities, including […]


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