Month: April 2020

Good news. Scotland is ahead of, not behind, the UK! Part IX of Glimmer of hope. (15-April-2020) Summary My modelling places Scotland 4 days ahead of the UK along its COVID-19 trajectory, despite yesterday being the 2nd worst day ever in Scotland for new COVID-19 cases. Scotland vs. United Kingdom A total of 93,855 cases […]

Another day with an underlying downward trend across the UK. Part VIII of Glimmer of hope. (14-April-2020)   Summary United Kingdom still models as past peak. European countries predicted to have very different final death tallies (on a per capita basis). Scotland doing OK.   United Kingdom Yesterday’s new data support the view that the […]

Excellent day for UK, COVID-19 peaks Part VII of Glimmer of hope. (13-April-2020)   Summary The main health threat (from COVID-19 1st phase) will from today onwards diminish – as long as the UK lockdown is firmly maintained and the public continues to support it.   United Kingdom For the first time my model puts […]

Bad day for UK as COVID-19 cases surge Part VI of Glimmer of hope. (12-April-2020) Summary Despite yesterday’s surge in new cases and the number of Covid-19 hospital patients who have died in the UK passing the grim 10,000 milestone, I continue to model the peak as being only days away. United Kingdom Despite yesterday’s […]

The UK COVID-19 peak is imminent Part V of Glimmer of hope. (11-April-2020) Summary Time-series modelling consistently suggests peak COVID-19 is only days away. Based on the pattern of COVID-19 deaths from numerous countries around the world the decline phase can be expected to persist for around the same length of time as the rise. […]

The UK COVID-19 peak is in sight! Part IV of Glimmer of hope. (10-April-2020) Summary To summarise today’s and the previous three blog posts. The UK COVID-19 peak looks to be in sight. If you are elderly, or vulnerable, then this is the critical period. In my view the next ten, or so, days is […]

Is the UKs COVID-19 peak in sight?  Yes! Part III of Glimmer of hope. (9-April-2020) Part II   Summary In short, peak COVID-19 can indeed now be glimpsed. Background The pioneering petroleum-supply authority M. King Hubbert refined his forecasts of peak oil by a clever strategy. He noted that oil production lagged behind oil discoveries […]

Part II of Glimmer of hope. (7-April-2020) Part I Results China: China provides an example of the death rate through a full cycle of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.  Purple lines are generalised-skew-normal response curves to outlier adjusted death data. Notice how the spread of model fits (purple band) demonstrates a sharp peak […]

Part I of Glimmer of hope. (6-April-2020) How many global deaths will COVID-19 cause?   Summary COVID-19 can be analysed using a tried and tested methodology previously used with great success by energy-modellers, geologists and phenologists. Preamble Using Hubbert’s peak-oil methodology the eventual number of global deaths from COVID-19 can be estimated. At present an […]


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