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Category: COVID-19

Beware the sting in the tail… Part XV of Glimmer of hope. (24-April-2020) Summary How will you first know when the COVID19 crisis is over and that it has become safe to abandon social distancing? Read this blog of course. Deaths must lag behind infections. Nevertheless, although it may seem counterintuitive, my current advice is […]

Does Vallance show balance? Part XIV of Glimmer of hope. (23-April-2020) Summary Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance tonight (23 April) said he expects COVID-19 deaths to ‘plateau’ for the next couple of weeks but will then come down ‘faster’ after that. I disagree. The UK is well past peak. Both reported deaths and new […]

UK COVID-19 model consistently forecasts a rapid decline in daily deaths Part XIII of Glimmer of hope. (21-April-2020)   Summary UK deaths can be expected to be below 100 a day by 2nd May (in 11 days time) as long as restrictions are not relaxed. In hindsight My first COVID-19 prediction was posted 15 days […]

Predicting the pandemic: is COVID-19 modelling useful? Part XII of Glimmer of hope. (20-April-2020) “It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all.” – Henri Poincaré (1854 – 1912). Summary Modelling lies at the heart of understanding how the COVID-19 pandemic is spreading and evolving. Models take centre stage […]

Testing, testing, testing Part XI of Glimmer of hope. (19-April-2020)   Summary There are serious calls for over a thousand million tests to be made in the USA alone during the COVID-19 epidemic. The aim would be to restore the USA to some normality as quickly as possible. More labs, machines, technicians and health workers […]

When will we know the coronavirus battle is over? Part X of Glimmer of hope. (16-April-2020) Summary Planning a road map to reopening economies is not going to be easy. Lives have to be weighed against livelihoods. Hubbert’s peak-oil mathematics can offer a helping hand. It can help distinguish an emerging 2nd peak (requiring a […]

Good news. Scotland is ahead of, not behind, the UK! Part IX of Glimmer of hope. (15-April-2020) Summary My modelling places Scotland 4 days ahead of the UK along its COVID-19 trajectory, despite yesterday being the 2nd worst day ever in Scotland for new COVID-19 cases. Scotland vs. United Kingdom A total of 93,855 cases […]

Another day with an underlying downward trend across the UK. Part VIII of Glimmer of hope. (14-April-2020)   Summary United Kingdom still models as past peak. European countries predicted to have very different final death tallies (on a per capita basis). Scotland doing OK.   United Kingdom Yesterday’s new data support the view that the […]

Excellent day for UK, COVID-19 peaks Part VII of Glimmer of hope. (13-April-2020)   Summary The main health threat (from COVID-19 1st phase) will from today onwards diminish – as long as the UK lockdown is firmly maintained and the public continues to support it.   United Kingdom For the first time my model puts […]

Bad day for UK as COVID-19 cases surge Part VI of Glimmer of hope. (12-April-2020) Summary Despite yesterday’s surge in new cases and the number of Covid-19 hospital patients who have died in the UK passing the grim 10,000 milestone, I continue to model the peak as being only days away. United Kingdom Despite yesterday’s […]

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