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Mark Naylor’s Blog

Mark Naylor’s Blog

I want to know how the Earth works…


Student Theses

2019-2022      Dr Francesco Serafini (H2020): Modelling seismicity as a spatio-temporal point process using inlabru

2016-2022      Dr Gina Geffers (NERC E3, 2nd supervisor)Model selection in earthquake recurrence relationships: b-value bias in tectonic, volcanic and induced seismological settings

2015-2020      Dr Thomas BernardPost-orogenic topography and sediment flux of mountain-foreland basin systems: Miocene erosion and sediment yield from the Pyrenees

2014-2019      Dr Kirsty Bayliss (EPSRC): Seismic source zonation using modern statistical methods

2012-2016      Dr Rami Eid (EoN): Testing of geophysical monitoring techniques using numerical leakage situations

2009-2011      Dr Sarah Touati (EPSRC): Complexity, aftershock sequences, and uncertainty in earthquake statisti

Recent Presentations Link

My Publications

I have 65 publications with a h-index of 27 on Google Scholar.

My Google Scholar page

Below, PhD student and PDRA lead authors are highlighted in bold italics. I am highlighted in bold.

In Prep

  • Naylor, Testing the frequency-magnitude rolloff for induced seismicity: Case study of Preston New Road
  • Bayliss, Naylor and Main, Developing a background seismicity model for operational earthquake forecasting in Italy
  • Serafini et al, Spatio-temporal modelling of seismicity using ETAS.inlabru


  • Kamranzad, Naylor, Lindgren, Bayliss and Main Enhancing the ETAS model: incorporating rate-dependent incompleteness, constructing a representative dataset, and reducing bias in inversions [preprint]
  • Sinclair, Naylor, Kirstein, Carter, Stanton, Glotzbach, Bernet, van der Beek, Late Cenozoic erosion rates in the Western Alps revealed by detrital apatite fission track analysis (Submitted)
  • Matthews, Naylor, Sinclair, Black, Williams, Cuthill, Dietze, Gervais, and Smith, Sounding out the river: Sounding out the river: Seismic and hydroacoustic monitoring of bedload transport (Submitted)


  • Pokhrel, P., Attal, M., Sinclair, H. D., Mudd, S. M., and Naylor, M. (2024) Downstream rounding rate of pebbles in the Himalaya, EGUsphere [preprint],, 2023


  • Nievasa, Crowley, Reulanda, Weatherill, Baltzopoulosa, Bayliss, Chatzi, Chioccarelli, Guéguen, Iervolino, Naylor, Orlacchio, Pejovica, Serafini & Serdar (2023) Exploration of state-dependent rapid loss assessment and event-based operational earthquake loss forecasting incorporating structural health monitoring: an open-source tool, Earthquake Engineering and Dynamics for a Sustainable Future, CECED 2023.
  • Serafini, F., Lindgren, F., & Naylor, M. (2023). Approximation of Bayesian Hawkes process with inlabru. Environmetrics, e2798. (Journal Paper, Preprint) {64 papers}
  • MacDonell, Williams, Maniatis, Roberts, and Naylor, (Minor revisions,  Earth Surface Processes and Landforms) Consumer-grade UAV solid state LiDAR accurately quantifies fluvial topography and vegetation (EarthArXiv Preprint,
  • Naylor, Serafini, Lindgren, and Main, (2023) Bayesian modelling the temporal evolution of seismicity using the ETAS.inlabru package, Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics, doi: 10.3389/fams.2023.1126759 (Journal Link, arvix Preprint)
  • Geffers, Main and Naylor (2023) Accuracy and precision of frequency-size distribution scaling parameters as a function of dynamic range of observations: example of the Gutenberg-Richter law b-value for earthquakes, Geophysical Journal International (



  • Nic Bhloscaidh, McCloskey, Pelling and Naylor (2021) Do social adaptations increase earthquake resilience?Journal of  Disaster Risk Reduction, Volume 52, January 2021, 101972
  • T Bernard, H.D. Sinclair, M. Naylor, F. Christophoul, M. Ford (2021) Post‐orogenic sediment drape in the Northern Pyrenees explained using a box model, Basin Research, [BLOG]


  • Bayliss, Naylor, Illian, Main (2020) Data-driven optimisation of seismicity in models using diverse datasets: generation, evaluation and ranking using inlabru, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 125, e2020JB020226, [BLOG]
  • Huyghe , M. Bernet , A. Galy , M. Naylor , J. Cruz , B.R. Gyawali ,Gemignani and J-L. Mugnier, (2020) Rapid exhumation since at least 13 Ma in the Himalaya recorded by detrital apatite fission-track dating of Bengal fan (IODP Expedition 354) and modern Himalayan river sediments, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 534 (2020) 116078,
  • C Li, S Wanga, M Naylor, HD Sinclair, L Wanga (2020) Evolution of the Cenozoic Tarim Basin by flexural subsidence and sediment ponding: insights from quantitative basin modelling, Marine and Petroleum Geology


  • Clarke, ES Calder, F Dessalegn, K Fontijn, JA Cortés, M Naylor, I Butler, … (2019) Fluidal pyroclasts reveal the intensity of peralkaline rhyolite pumice cone eruptions, Nature Communications, 10 (1), 2010
  • Bayliss, Naylor, IG Main (2019) Probabilistic identification of earthquake clusters using rescaled nearest neighbour distance networks, Geophysical Journal International 217 (1), 487-503


  • SM Marrero, AS Hein, M Naylor, M Attal, R Shanks, K Winter, J Woodward, … (2018) Controls on subaerial erosion rates in Antarctica, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 501, 56-66
  • R Kilgallon, SMV Gilfillan, K Edlmann, CI McDermott, M Naylor, … (2018) Experimental determination of noble gases and SF6, as tracers of CO2 flow through porous sandstone, Chemical Geology, 480, 93-104
  • AF Bell, M Naylor, S Hernandez, IG Main, HE Gaunt, P Mothes, M Ruiz (2018) Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long‐Period Earthquakes, Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (3), 1339-1348


  • Roberts, J. J., Gilfillan, S.M.V., Stalker, L. & Naylor, M. (2017) Geochemical tracers for monitoring offshore CO2stores, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
  • Roberts, J. J., Wilkinson, M., Naylor, M., Shipton, Z. K., Wood, R. & Haszeldine, R., (2017) Natural CO2 sites in Italy show importance of overburden geopressure, fractures and faults for CO2 storage performance and risk management, In: Geological Society of London Special Publications. 458
  • Wetenhall, B., Race, J., Aghajani, H., Fernandez, ES., Naylor, M. & Lucquiaud M. (2017) Considerations in the development of flexible CCS networks, Energy Procedia 114, 6800-6812


  • Sanchez Fernandez, E., Naylor, M., Lucquiaud, M., Wetenhall, B., Aghajani, H., Race, J., Chalmers, H. (2016) Impacts of geological store uncertainties on the design and operation of flexible CCS offshore pipeline infrastructure, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 52, pp. 139-154.
  • ** Touati, S., Naylor, M., Main, I., (2016) Detection of change points in underlying earthquake rates, with application to global mega-earthquakes Geophysical Journal International, 204 (2), pp. 753-767.
  • [Reviewed Conference Paper] Wetenhall, B., Race, J., Aghajani, H., Sanchez-Fernandez, E., Naylor, M., Lucquiaud, M. & Chalmers, H. (2016)Considerations in the development of flexible CCS networks Energy Procedia


  • Eid, R., Ziolkowski, A., Naylor, M., Pickup, G. (2015) Seismic monitoring of CO2 plume growth, evolution and migration in a heterogeneous reservoir: Role, impact and importance of patchy saturationInternational Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 43, pp. 70-81.
  • Naylor, M., Sinclair, H.D., Bernet, M., van der Beek, P., Kirstein, L.A. (2015) Bias in detrital fission track grain-age populations: Implications for reconstructing changing erosion rates, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 422, pp. 94-104.
  • Baynes, E.R.C., Attal, M., Niedermann, S., Kirstein, L.A., Dugmore, A.J., Naylor, M. (2015) Erosion during extreme flood events dominates holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112 (8), pp. 2355-2360
  • M Nic Bhloscaidh, J McCloskey, M Naylor, S Murphy, A Lindsay (2015) Reconstruction of the slip distributions in historical earthquakes on the Sunda megathrust, W. Sumatra, Geophysical Journal International, 202 (2), 1339-1361
  • M Attal, SM Mudd, MD Hurst, B Weinman, K Yoo, M Naylor (2015) Impact of change in erosion rate and landscape steepness on hillslope and fluvial sediments grain size in the Feather River basin (Sierra Nevada, California), Earth Surface Dynamics 3 (1), 201
  • Direito, S.O.L., Clark, S., Cousins, C., Fujita, Y., Gluyas, J., Harley, S., Holmes, R.J., Hutchinson, I.B., Kudryavtsev, V.A., Lloyd, J., Main, I.G., Naylor, M., Payler, S., Smith, N., Spooner, N.J.C., Telfer, S., Thompson, L.F., Wouters, K., Wragg, J., Cockell, C. (2015) Geological repositories: Scientific priorities and potential high-technology transfer from the space and physics sectors, Mineralogical Magazine, 79 (6), pp. 1651-1664.


  • Taylor, P., Stahl, H., Vardy, M.E., Bull, J.M., Akhurst, M., Hauton, C., James, R.H., Lichtschlag, A., Long, D., Aleynik, D., Toberman, M., Naylor, M., Connelly, D., Smith, D., Sayer, M.D.J., Widdicombe, S., Wright, I.C., Blackford, J. (2014) A novel sub-seabed CO2 release experiment informing monitoring and impact assessment for geological carbon storage, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 38,
  • Burnside, N.M., Naylor, M. (2014) Review and implications of relative permeability of CO2/brine systems and residual trapping of CO2, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 23, pp. 1-11.
  • Touati, S., Naylor, M., Main, I.G. (2014) Statistical modeling of the 1997-1998 Colfiorito earthquake Sequence: Locating a stationary solution within parameter uncertainty, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104 (2), pp. 885-897.
  • Blackford, J., Stahl, H., Bull, J.M., Bergès, B.J.P., Cevatoglu, M., Lichtschlag, A., Connelly, D., James, R.H., Kita, J., Long, D., Naylor, M., Shitashima, K., Smith, D., Taylor, P., Wright, I., Akhurst, M., Chen, B., Gernon, T.M., Hauton, C., Hayashi, M., Kaieda, H., Leighton, T.G., Sato, T., Sayer, M.D.J., Suzumura, M., Tait, K., Vardy, M.E., White, P.R., Widdicombe, S. (2014) Detection and impacts of leakage from sub-seafloor deep geological carbon dioxide storage, Nature Climate Change, 4 (11), pp. 1011-1016.
  • [Reviewed Conference Paper] Eid, R., Ziolkowski, A., Naylor, M., Pickup, G. (2014) The detectability of free-phase migrating CO2: A rock physics and seismic modelling feasibility study, Energy Procedia, 63, pp. 4449-4458.


  • Davidsen, J., Schumann, A.Y., Naylor, M. (2013) Are scale-invariant stress orientations related to seismicity rates near the San Andreas fault? Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (23), pp. 6074-6078.
  • Bell, A.F., Naylor, M., Main, I.G. (2013) The limits of predictability of volcanic eruptions from accelerating rates of earthquakes Geophysical Journal International, 194 (3), pp. 1541-1553.
  • Bell, A.F., Naylor, M., Main, I.G. (2013) Convergence of the frequency-size distribution of global earthquakesGeophysical Research Letters, 40 (11), pp. 2585-2589.
  • [Book chapter] Blackford, J., Hattam, C., Widdicombe, S., Burnside, N., Naylor, M., Kirk, K., Maul, P., Wright, I. (2013) CO2 leakage from geological storage facilities: Environmental, societal and economic impacts, monitoring and research strategies Geological Storage of Carbon Dioxide (co2): Geoscience, Technologies, Environmental Aspects and Legal Frameworks, pp. 149-178.
  • [Reviewed Conference Paper] Burnside, N.M., Naylor, M., Kirk, K., Whittaker, F. (2013) QICS Work Package 1: Migration and trapping of CO2 from a reservoir to the seabed or land surface Energy Procedia, 37, pp. 4673-4681.


  • Jin, M., Pickup, G., Mackay, E., Todd, A., Sohrabi, M., Monaghan, A., Naylor, M. (2012) Static and dynamic estimates of CO2-storage capacity in two saline formations in the UK SPE Journal, 17 (4), pp. 1108-1118.
  • Main, I., Naylor, M. (2012) Extreme events and predictability of catastrophic failure in composite materials and in the Earth European Physical Journal: Special Topics, 205 (1), pp. 183-197.
  • Sinclair, H.D., Naylor, M. (2012) Foreland basin subsidence driven by topographic growth versus plate subduction Bulletin of the Geological Society of America, 124 (3-4), pp. 368-379.


  • Zechar, J.D., Hardebeck, J.L., Michael, A.J., Naylor, M., Steacy, S., Wiemer, S., Zhuang, J. (2011) Community online resource for statistical seismicity analysis, Seismological Research Letters, 82 (5), pp. 686-690.
  • Bell, A.F., Naylor, M., Heap, M.J., Main, I.G. (2011) Forecasting volcanic eruptions and other material failure phenomena: An evaluation of the failure forecast method, Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (15), art. no. L15304,
  • Naylor, M., Wilkinson, M., Haszeldine, R.S. (2011) Calculation of CO2 column heights in depleted gas fields from known pre-production gas column heights, Marine and Petroleum Geology, 28 (5), pp. 1083-1093.
  • Eke, P.E., Naylor, M., Haszeldine, S., Curtis, A. (2011) CO2/Brine surface dissolution and injection: CO2 storage enhancement, SPE Projects, Facilities and Construction, 6 (1), pp. 41-53.
  • Touati, S., Naylor, M., Main, I.G., Christie, M. (2011) Masking of earthquake triggering behavior by a high background rate and implications for epidemic-type aftershock sequence inversions, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 116 (3), art. no. B03304
  • [Reviewed Conference Paper] Eke, P.E., Naylor, M., Haszeldine, S., Curtis, A. (2011) CO2 leakage prevention technologies Society of Petroleum Engineers – Offshore Europe Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition 2011, OE 2011, 1, pp. 207-220.
  • [Reviewed Conference Paper] Main, I.G., Naylor, M., Greenhough, J., Touati, S., Bell, A.F., McCloskey, J. (2011) Model selection and uncertainty in earthquake hazard analysis, Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, pp. 735-743
  • [Reviewed Conference Paper] Pickup, G.E., Jin, M., Olden, P., Mackay, E., Todd, A.C., Ford, J.R., Lawrence, D., Monaghan, A., Naylor, M., Haszeldine, R.S., Smith, M. (2011) Geological storage of CO2: Site appraisal and modeling, Energy Procedia, 4, pp. 4762-4769.


  • Main, I.G., Naylor, M. (2010) Entropy production and self-organized (sub)criticality in earthquake dynamics, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 368 (1910), pp. 131-144.


  • Naylor, M., Greenhough, J., McCloskey, J., Bell, A.F., Main, I.G. (2009) Statistical evaluation of characteristic earthquakes in the frequency-magnitude distributions of Sumatra and other subduction zone regions, Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (20), art. no. L20303,
  • Hein, A.S., Hulton, N.R.J., Dunai, T.J., Schnabel, C., Kaplan, M.R., Naylor, M., Xu, S. (2009) Middle Pleistocene glaciation in Patagonia dated by cosmogenic-nuclide measurements on outwash gravels Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 286 (1-2), pp. 184-197.
  • Touati, S., Naylor, M., Main, I.G. (2009) Origin and nonuniversality of the earthquake interevent time distribution, Physical Review Letters, 102 (16), art. no. 168501
  • Naylor, M., Main, I.G., Touati, S. (2009) Quantifying uncertainty in mean earthquake interevent times for a finite sample, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 114 (1), art. no. B01316,
  • [Reviewed Conference Paper] Eke, P.E., Naylor, M., Haszeldine, S., Curtis, A. (2009) CO2-brine surface dissolution and injection: CO2 storage enhancement, Society of Petroleum Engineers – Offshore Europe Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition 2009, OE 2009, 2, pp. 1020-1035.


  • Main, I.G., Naylor, M. (2008) Maximum entropy production and earthquake dynamics, Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (19), art. no. L19311,
  • Naylor, M., Sinclair, H.D. (2008) Pro- vs. retro-foreland basins, Basin Research, 20 (3), pp. 285-303.
  • Naylor, M., Main, I.G. (2008) Cell scale self-organisation in the OFC model for earthquake dynamics: Re-rupturing, memory loss and quantisation of strain, European Physical Journal B, 64 (1), pp. 139-146.
  • Main, I.G., Li, L., McCloskey, J., Naylor, M. (2008) Effect of the Sumatran mega-earthquake on the global magnitude cut-off and event rate, Nature Geoscience, 1 (3), p. 142.


  • Naylor, M., Sinclair, H.D. (2007) Punctuated thrust deformation in the context of doubly vergent thrust wedges: Implications for the location of uplift and exhumation, Geology, 35 (6), pp. 559-562.


  • Cowie, P.A., Attal, M., Tucker, G.E., Whittaker, A.C., Naylor, M., Ganas, A., Roberts, G.P. (2006) Investigating the surface process response to fault interaction and linkage using a numerical modelling approach, Basin Research, 18 (3), pp. 231-266.


  • Naylor, M., Sinclair, H.D., Willett, S., Cowie, P.A. (2005) A discrete element model for orogenesis and accretionary wedge growth, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 110 (12), art. no. B12403, pp. 1-16
  • Sinclair, H.D., Gibson, M., Naylor, M., Morris, R.G. (2005) Asymmetric growth of the Pyrenees revealed through measurement and modeling of orogenic fluxes, American Journal of Science, 305 (5), pp. 369-406.



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