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Mark Naylor’s Blog

Mark Naylor’s Blog

I want to know how the Earth works…


PhD Students

You can finding information about the PhD students I have supervised below, including some of the key papers from their PhDs. I strongly encourage all students to produce first author papers during their studies.


2021-                Man Ho Suen (2nd Supervisor, Lindgren lead supervisor) Modelling landslides with inlabru

2020-                Bronwyn Matthews (EPSRC): Sounding out the river – Monitoring bedload mobilisation and transport on the River Feshie

    • Matthews, B., Naylor, M., Sinclair, H., Dietze, M., Williams, R., and Cuthill, C.: Isolating bed load transport from river induced seismic signals, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7633,, 2022

2020-                Himanshu Agrawal (GCRF Tomorrows City Hub, Edinburgh/UCL): Physics-based ground-motion simulations for seismic risk assessment in rapidly urbanising environments

2020-                Farnaz Kamranzad (GCRF Tomorrows City Hub): Uncertainty in Passive Seismic Imaging

    • Bayliss, Naylor, Kamranzad, and Main, Pseudo-prospective testing of 5-year earthquake forecasts forCalifornia using inlabru, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences [EGU] (Preprint: Minor Corrections)

Student Stories


2019-23             Dr Francesco Serafini (H2020, RISE): Modelling seismicity as a spatio-temporal point process using inlabru

    • Cecilia I. Nievasa, Helen Crowley, Yves Reulanda, Graeme Weatherill, Georgios Baltzopoulosa, Kirsty Bayliss, Eleni Chatzi, Eugenio Chioccarelli, Philippe Guéguen, Iunio Iervolino, Mark Naylor, Mabel Orlacchio, Jelena Pejovica, Francesco Serafini & Nina Serdar (Submitted) EXPLORATION OF STATE-DEPENDENT RAPID LOSS ASSESSMENT AND EVENT-BASED OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE LOSS FORECASTING INCORPORATING STRUCTURAL HEALTH MONITORING: AN OPEN-SOURCE TOOL, Earthquake Engineering and Dynamics for a Sustainable Future, CECED 2023.
    • Serafini, F., Lindgren, F., & Naylor, M. (2023). Approximation of Bayesian Hawkes process with inlabru. Environmetrics, e2798. (Journal Paper, Preprint)
    • Naylor, Serafini, Lindgren, and Main, (In Press, 2023) Bayesian modelling the temporal evolution of seismicity using the ETAS.inlabru package, Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics, doi: 10.3389/fams.2023.1126759 (Journal Link, arvix Preprint)
    • Serafini, Naylor, Lindgren, Werner, and Main, (2022) Ranking earthquake forecasts using proper scoring rules: Binary events in a low probability environment, Geophysical Journal International, ggac124 [Journal link ; PrePrint Server]
    • Serafini, F., Naylor, M., Lindgren, F., and Werner, M.: Ranking earthquake forecasts: On the use of proper scoring rules to discriminate forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7418,, 2021

2016-2022       Dr Gina Geffers (NERC E3, 2nd supervisor)Model selection in earthquake recurrence relationships: b-value bias in tectonic, volcanic and induced seismological settings

2015-2020      Dr Thomas Bernard (2nd supervisor)Post-orogenic topography and sediment flux of mountain-foreland basin systems: Miocene erosion and sediment yield from the Pyrenees

    • T Bernard, H.D. Sinclair, M. Naylor, F. Christophoul, M. Ford (2020) Post‐orogenic sediment drape in the Northern Pyrenees explained using a box model, Basin Research, [BLOG]

2014-2019      Dr Kirsty Bayliss (EPSRC): Seismic source zonation using modern statistical methods [currently doing a postdoc on the RISE H2020 project]

    • Bayliss, Naylor, Kamranzad, and Main, Pseudo-prospective testing of 5-year earthquake forecasts forCalifornia using inlabru, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences [EGU] (Preprint: accepted)
    • Savran, Bayona, Iturrieta, Asim, Bao, Bayliss, Herrmann, Schorlemmer, Maechling, Werner (2022) pyCSEP: A Python Toolkit for Earthquake Forecast Developers. Seismological Research Letters 2022; doi:
    • Bayliss, Naylor, Illian, Main (2020) Data-driven optimisation of seismicity in models using diverse datasets: generation, evaluation and ranking using inlabru, JGR: Solid Earth [BLOG]
    • K Bayliss, M Naylor, IG Main (2019) Probabilistic identification of earthquake clusters using rescaled nearest neighbour distance networks, Geophysical Journal International 217 (1), 487-503

2012-2016      Dr Rami Eid (EoN, 2nd supervisor): Testing of geophysical monitoring techniques using numerical leakage situations [after a postdoc, went on to work for the Geological Survey of Victoria, Australia]

    • Eid, R., Ziolkowski, A., Naylor, M., Pickup, G. (2015) Seismic monitoring of CO2 plume growth, evolution and migration in a heterogeneous reservoir: Role, impact and importance of patchy saturationInternational Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 43, pp. 70-81.
    • Eid, R., Ziolkowski, A., Naylor, M., Pickup, G. (2014) The detectability of free-phase migrating CO2: A rock physics and seismic modelling feasibility study, Energy Procedia, 63, pp. 4449-4458.

2009-2011      Dr Sarah Touati (EPSRC): Complexity, aftershock sequences, and uncertainty in earthquake statistics [after a postdoc, left academia to work in health statistics at the Scottish Government]

    • Touati, S., Naylor, M., Main, I.G. (2014) Statistical modeling of the 1997-1998 Colfiorito earthquake Sequence: Locating a stationary solution within parameter uncertainty, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104 (2), pp. 885-897.
    • Touati, S., Naylor, M., Main, I.G., Christie, M. (2011) Masking of earthquake triggering behavior by a high background rate and implications for epidemic-type aftershock sequence inversions, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 116 (3), art. no. B03304
    • Touati, S., Naylor, M., Main, I.G. (2009) Origin and nonuniversality of the earthquake interevent time distribution, Physical Review Letters, 102 (16), art. no. 168501

Postdoc Researchers

2020-22           Calum Cuthill: Sounding out the river – Low cost seismic sensor development

2019-21           Dr Kirsty Bayliss: (i) RISE, (ii) NERC-NSF

2017-19           Dr Zhang: PUREC

2017                  Dr Cartwright-Taylor: REAR

2015 – 2017   Dr Emily Kawabata: (i) RACER, (ii) PUREC

2012 – 2015   Dr Sarah Touati: PURE

2013                 Dr Jen Roberts: QUIC2 Scoping

2010 – 2013   Dr Neil Burnside: (i) QICS, (ii) QICS2 Scoping, (iii) ScotPower Actuarial Risk


Core Collaborators

Prof Ian Main (Edinburgh, GeoSciences)

Prof Hugh Sinclair (Edinburgh, GeoSciences)

Prof Finn Lindgren (Edinburgh, GeoSciences)

Dr Karim Tarbali (UCL, Engineering)

Dr Micha Dietze (Potsdam)

Prof Karen Mair (Oslo)

Dr Max Werner (Bristol)

Prof John McCloskey (Edinburgh, GeoSciences)

Prof Janine Illian (Glasgow)

Dr Stella Pytharouli (Strathclyde)

Dr Andrew Black (Dundee)

Prof Chris Bean (Dublin)

Dr Katrin Loer (Aberdeen)




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