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Concerning the quest to predict space weather more accurately

I have done an RMS graph in a similar fashion to the graph I did last week, and I have come up with the following plot. It looks a lot more promising for the ARIMA forecast compared to the previous plot.

I included 3 datasets this time (from 2014, 2015 and 2016). It is clear that the blip at 35hrs was an artefact of the data when looking at more data points.

A Persistence forecast is also included (takes most recent value of ap as the prediction). It is actually slightly worse than my simple model, which is slightly more complicated.

Comparing ARIMA forecast to Persistence model, RMS error / Space: weather or not by blogadmin is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0

Posted by s1725621

21st October 2021

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