Citations by Google Scholar, SCOPUS and ISI Web of Science.

NB Open Access versions of these publications, where available, can be downloaded from HERE 

Refereed research papers

  1. Main, I.G. & P.W. Burton (1981). Rates of crustal deformation inferred from seismic moment and Gumbel’s third distribution of extreme values, in Beavers, J.E. (ed.), Earthquakes and Earthquake Engineering – The Eastern United States Vol. 2, Ann Arbor Science, Michigan, 937-951.
  2. Burton, P.W., I.G. Main & R.E. Long (1983). Perceptible earthquakes in the Central and Eastern US (examined using Gumbel’s third distribution of extreme values), Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 73, 497-518.
  3. Burton, P.W., I.G. Main & G. Nielson (1983). Seismic risk and the North Sea, in Ritsema, A.R. & A. Gurpinar (eds.), Seismicity and seismic risk in the offshore North Sea Area, D. Reidel, Holland, 347-364.
  4. Main, I.G. & P.W. Burton (1984a). Physical links between crustal deformation, seismic moment and seismic hazard for regions of varying seismicity, Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 79, 469-489.
  5. Main, I.G. & P.W. Burton (1984b). Information theory and the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 74, 1409-1426.
  6. Main, I.G. & P.W. Burton (1986). Long-term earthquake recurrence constrained by tectonic seismic moment release rates, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 76, 297-304.
  7. Main, I.G. (1987). A characteristic earthquake model of the seismicity preceding the eruption of Mount St. Helens, Phys. Earth Planet. Int. 49, 283-293.
  8. Main, I. (1988). Prediction of failure times in the earth for a time-varying stress, Geophys. J. 92, 455-464.
  9. Main, I.G., P.G. Meredith & C. Jones (1989). A reinterpretation of the precursory seismic b-value anomaly from fracture mechanics, Geophys. J. 96, 131-138.
  10. Main I.G. & P.W. Burton (1989). Seismotectonics and the earthquake frequency magnitude distribution in the Aegean area, Geophys. J. 98, 575-586.
  11. Main, I.G. & P.G. Meredith (1989). Classification of earthquake precursors from a fracture mechanics model, Tectonophysics 167, 273-283.
  12. Main, I.G., S. Peacock & P.G. Meredith (1990). Scattering attenuation and the fractal geometry of fracture systems, Pure App. Geophys. 133, 283-304.
  13. Meredith, P.G., I.G. Main & C. Jones (1990). Temporal variations in seismicity during quasi-static and dynamic rock failure, Tectonophysics 175, 249-268.
  14. Main, I.G. (1990). Quasi-static modelling of stress histories during the earthquake cycle, Geophys. J. Int. 102, 195-204.
  15. Ligdas, C.N., I.G. Main & R.D. Adams (1990). Three-dimensional structure of the lithosphere in the Aegean region, Geophys. J. Int. 102, 219-230.
  16. Main, I.G. & P.W. Burton (1990). Moment-magnitude scaling in the Aegean area, Tectonophysics 179, 273-285.
  17. Main, I.G., P.G. Meredith, P.R. Sammonds & C. Jones (1990). Influence of fractal flaw distributions on rock deformation in the brittle field, in Knipe, R.J. & E.H. Rutter (eds.) Deformation Mechanisms, Rheology and Tectonics, Geol. Soc. London Special Publication No 54, 81-96.
  18. Ligdas, C.N. & I.G. Main (1991). On the resolving power of tomographic images in the Aegean area, Geophys. J. Int. 107, 197-204.
  19. Ligdas, C.N. & I.G. Main (1991). Some geodynamic implications from the inversion of P-wave travel-time residuals in the Aegean region, Bull. Geol. Soc. Greece XXV/3, 217-224.
  20. Main, I.G. (1991). A modified Griffith criterion for the evolution of damage with a fractal distribution of crack lengths: Application to seismic event rates and b-values, Geophys. J. Int. 107, 353-362.
  21. Main, I.G. & P.G. Meredith (1991). Stress corrosion constitutive laws as a possible mechanism of intermediate-term and short-term seismic quiescence, Geophys. J. Int. 107, 363-372.
  22. Norman, M.G., J.R. Henderson, I.G. Main & D.J. Wallace (1991). The use of the CAPE environment in the simulation of rock fracturing, Concurrency: Practice & Experience 3, 687-698.
  23. Liakopoulou, F., R.G. Pearce & I.G. Main (1991). Source mechanisms of recent earthquakes in the Hellenic arc from broadband data, Tectonophysics 200, 233-248 [and erratum 219, 356-357].
  24. Main, I.G. (1992). Earthquake scaling, Nature 357, 27-28.
  25. Ligdas, C., I.G. Main & R.D. Adams (1992). 3-D velocity structure and constraints on the nature of the coupled subduction-spreading process in the Aegean area, Tectonophysics 201, 199-208.
  26. Henderson, J. & I. Main (1992). A simple fracture-mechanical model for the evolution of seismicity, Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 365-368.
  27. Elphick, S.C., G.B. Shimmield, B.T. Ngwenya, I.G. Main, B.G.D. Smart & B.R. Crawford (1992). The effects of combined changes in pore fluid chemistry and stress state on reservoir permeability: Design and recirculating flow rig, in Kharaka, Y.K. & A.S. Maest (eds.), Water-Rock Interaction, A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, 1113-1116.
  28. Sammonds, P.R., P.G. Meredith & I.G. Main (1992). Role of pore fluids in the generation of seismic precursors to shear fracture, Nature 359, 228-230. LINK
  29. Main, I.G., P.G. Meredith & P.R. Sammonds (1992). Temporal variations in seismic event rate and b-values from stress corrosion constitutive laws, Tectonophysics 211, 233-246.
  30. Henderson, J., I.G. Main, P.G. Meredith & P.R. Sammonds (1992). The evolution of seismicity: observation, experiment and a fracture-mechanical interpretation, J. Struct. Geol. 14, 905-914.
  31. Main, I.G. (1992). Damage mechanics with long-range interactions: correlation between the seismic b-value and the two point correlation dimension, Geophys. J. Int. 111, 531-541.
  32. Main, I.G., J.R. Henderson, B.G.D. Smart & B. Crawford (1993). Deformation and fluid flow in the brittle field, in Parnell, J., A.H. Ruffell & N.R. Moles (eds.), Geofluids ’93, 151-154.
  33. Main, I.G. (1993). The new physics and earthquake prediction, in Merriman, P.A. & C.W.A. Browitt (eds.), Natural Disasters – Protecting Vulnerable Communities, Telford, London, 238-251.
  34. Main, I.G., P.R. Sammonds & P.G. Meredith (1993). Application of a modified Griffith criterion to the evolution of fractal damage during compressional rock failure, Geophys. J. Int. 115, 367-380.
  35. Hatton, C.G., I.G. Main & P.G. Meredith (1993). A comparison of seismic and structural measurements of fractal dimension during tensile subcritical crack growth, J. Struct. Geol. 15, 1485-1495.
  36. Main, I.G., B.G.D. Smart, G.B. Shimmield, S.C. Elphick, B.R. Crawford & B.T. Ngwenya (1994). The effects of combined changes in pore-fluid chemistry and stress state on permeability in reservoir rocks: preliminary results from analogue materials, in Aasen, O. (ed.) North Sea Oil and Gas Reservoirs III, Kluwer, Dordrecht, 357-370.
  37. Henderson, J., I.G. Main, R. Pearce & M. Takaya (1994). Seismicity in north-eastern Brazil: Fractal clustering and the evolution of the b-value, Geophys. J. Int. 116, 217-226.
  38. Hatton, C.G., I.G. Main & P.G. Meredith (1994). Non-universal scaling of fracture length and opening displacement, Nature 367, 160-162. LINK
  39. Main, I.G., J.R. Henderson, P.G. Meredith & P.R. Sammonds (1994). Self-organised criticality and fluid-rock interactions in the brittle field, Pure Appl. Geophys. 142, 529-543.
  40. Henderson, J.R., I.G. Main, C. MacLean & M.G. Norman (1994). A fracture-mechanical cellular-automaton model of seismicity, Pure Appl. Geophys. 142, 545-565.
  41. Sammonds, P.R., P.G. Meredith, S.F. Murrell & I.G. Main (1994). Modelling the damage evolution in rock containing pore fluid by acoustic emission, Eurock 94: Rock Mechanics in Petroleum Engineering, Balkema, Rotterdam, 897-904.
  42. Liakopoulou-Morris, F., I.G. Main, B.R. Crawford & B.G.D. Smart (1994). Microseismic properties of a homogeneous sandstone during fault nucleation and frictional sliding, Geophys. J. Int. 119, 219-230.
  43. Crawford, B.R., B.G.D. Smart, I.G. Main & S. Dolan (1994). The micromechanics of deformation under true 3-D stress anisotropy from permeability and microseismic experimentation, Transactions, 16th European Formation Evaluation Symposium, Aberdeen.
  44. Main, I.G., P.G. Meredith, J.R. Henderson & P.R. Sammonds (1994). Positive and negative feedback in the earthquake cycle: the role of pore fluids on states of criticality in the crust, Annali di Geofisica 37, 207-225.
  45. Sammonds, P.R., P.G. Meredith, J. Gomez & I.G. Main (1995). The interaction between pore fluid pressure changes and crack damage evolution in rocks and subsurface rock structures modelled from acoustic emission data, Journal of Acoustic Emission 13, S21-S28.
  46. Abercrombie, R.E., I.G. Main, A. Douglas & P.W. Burton (1995). The nucleation and rupture processes of the 1981Gulf of Corinth earthquakes from deconvolved broadband data, Geophys. J. Int. 120, 393-405.
  47. Liakopoulou-Morris, F., I.G. Main & R.G. Pearce (1995). Source parameters of earthquakes in the Aleutian Islands subduction zone, Geophys. J. Int. 120, 419-432.
  48. Sharrock, D.S., I.G. Main & A. Douglas (1995). Observations of Q from the northwest Pacific subduction zone recorded at teleseismic distances, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 85, 237-253.
  49. Crawford, B.R., B.G.D. Smart, I.G. Main & F. Liakopoulou-Morris (1995). Strength characteristics and shear acoustic anisotropy of rock core subjected to true triaxial compression, Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 32, 189-200.
  50. Sharrock, D.S., I.G. Main & A. Douglas (1995). A two-layer attenuation model for the upper mantle at short periods, Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 2561-2564.
  51. Öncel, A.O., Ö. Alptekin & I.G. Main (1995). Temporal variations in the fractal properties of seismicity in the western part of the north Anatolian fault zone: possible artefacts due to  improvements in station coverage, J. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 2, 147-157.
  52. Öncel, A.O., I.G. Main, Ö. Alptekin & P.A. Cowie (1995). Temporal variations in the fractal properties of seismicity in the northern Anatolian fault zone, Pure App. Geophys. 146, 1-13.
  53. Öncel, A.O., Yüksel, F.A., Alptekin, Ö., Main, I., & Khalili, A., (1995). A preliminary fractal analysis of faulting in the Zagros thrust belt, in Proc., Second International Conference on Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Tehran, 149-156.
  54. Main, I.G. (1995). Earthquakes as critical phenomena: Implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 85, 1299-1308.LINK
  55. Main, I.G. (1995). Seismogenesis and seismic hazard, in Ranalli, G. (ed), Plate tectonics: the first 25 years, University of Siena Press, 395-419.
  56. Öncel, A., I. Main, Ö. Alptekin & P. Cowie (1995). Temporal variations in the fractal properties of seismicity in the northern Anatolian fault zone  between 31 degrees E and 41 degrees E, Pure Appl. Geophys. 147, 147-159.
  57. Maillot, B. & I.G. Main (1996). A lattice BGK model for the diffusion of pore pressure, including anisotropy, heterogeneity and gravity effects, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 13-16.
  58. Wilson, S.A., J.R. Henderson & I.G. Main (1996). A cellular automaton fracture model: The influence of heterogeneity in the failure process, J. Struct. Geol. 18, 343-347.
  59. Main, I., B. Ngwenya, S. Elphick, B. Smart, B. Crawford, & C. Poux (1996). Scale limits on fluid pressure diffusion during rapid self-sealing deformation and fluid flow, In Aubertin, M., F. Hassani & H. Mitri (eds.), Rock Mechanics, Vol. 2, Balkema, Rotterdam, 1161-1168.
  60. Öncel, A.O., I.G. Main, Ö. Alptekin & P.A. Cowie (1996). Spatial variation of the fractal properties of seismicity in the Anatolian fault zones, Tectonophysics 257, 189-202.
  61. Liu, Y., S. Crampin & I. Main (1997). Shear-wave anisotropy: spatial and temporal variations in time delays at Parkfield, Central California, Geophys. J. Int. 130, 771-785.
  62. Main, I.G., D. Irving, R. Musson & A. Reading (1999). Constraints on the frequency-magnitude relation and maximum magnitudes in the UK from observed seismicity and glacio-isostatic recovery rates, Geophys. J. Int. 137, 535-550.
  63. Main, I.G., T. Leonard, O. Papasouliotis, C.G. Hatton & P.G. Meredith (1999). One slope or two? Detecting statistically-significant breaks of slope in geophysical data, with application to fracture scaling relationships, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 2801-2804.
  64. Palumbo, P., I.G. Main & G. Zito (1999). Thermal evolution of sedimentary basins and its effect on the maturation of hydrocarbons, Geophys. J. Int. 139, 248-260.
  65. Maillot, B., S. Nielsen & I. Main (1999). Numerical simulation of seismicity due to fluid injection in a brittle poro-elastic medium, Geophys. J. Int. 139, 263-272.
  66. Main, I.G. (1999). Applicability of time-to-failure analysis to accelerated strain before earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, Geophys. J. Int. 139, F1-F6.
  67. Mair, K., I.G. Main & S.C. Elphick (2000). Sequential development of deformation bands in the laboratory, J. Struct. Geol. 22, 25-42.
  68. Main, I.G. (2000). Apparent breaks in scaling in the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution: fact or artifact?, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 90, 86-97.
  69. Main, I., G. O’Brien & J. Henderson (2000). Statistical physics of earthquakes: Comparison of distribution exponents for source area and potential energy and the dynamic emergence of log-periodic quanta, J. Geophys. Res. 105, 6105-6126.
  70. Main, I.G. (2000). A damage mechanics model for power-law creep and earthquake aftershock and foreshock sequences, Geophys. J. Int. 142, 151-161. LINK
  71. Main, I.G., O. Kwon, B.T. Ngwenya & S.C. Elphick (2000). Fault sealing during deformation band growth in porous sandstone, Geology 28, 1131-1134.
  72. Ngwenya, B.T., S.C. Elphick, I.G. Main & G.B. Shimmield (2000). Experimental constraints on the diagenetic self-sealing capacity of faults in high porosity rocks, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 183 187-199. 
  73. Leonard, T., O. Papasouliotis & I.G. Main (2001). A Poisson model for identifying characteristic size effects in frequency data: application to frequency-size distributions for global  earthquakes, ‘starquakes’ and fault lengths, J. Geophys. Res. 106, 13473-13474.
  74. Baraka-Lokmane, S., G. Teutsch & I.G. Main (2001). Influence of open and sealed fractures on fluid flow and water saturation in sandstone cores, Geophys. J. Int. 147, 263-271.
  75. Ngwenya, B.T., I.G. Main, S.C. Elphick, B.R. Crawford & B.G.D. Smart (2001). A constitutive law for low-temperature creep of water-saturated sandstones, J. Geophys. Res. 106, 21811-21826.
  76. Main, I.G. & F.H. Al-Kindy (2002). Entropy, energy and proximity to criticality in global earthquake populations, Geophys. Res. Lett.  29, 10.1029/2001 GL014078.  [See also reply to a  comment on this paper HERE]
  77. Mair, K., S. Elphick & I. Main (2002). Influence of confining pressure on the mechanical and structural evolution of deformation bands, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 10.1029/2001GL013964.
  78. Colombo, S., I.G. Main, M.C. Forde & J. Halliday (2002). Acoustic emission on bridges: experiments on concrete beams, in Mazal, P. (ed.) Proceedings of the 25th European Conference on Acoustic Emission Testing EWGAE2002, Prague, Vol. 1, 127-134.
  79. Koravos, G.C., I.G. Main, T.M. Tsapanos & R.M.W. Musson (2003). Maximum earthquake magnitudes in the Aegean area constrained by tectonic moment release rates, Geophys. J. Int., 152, 94-112.
  80. Vlastos, S., E. Liu, I.G. Main & X.-Y. Li (2003). Numerical simulation of wave propagation in media with discrete distributions of fracture sizes: effects of fracture sizes and spatial distributions, Geophys. J. Int., 152, 649-668.
  81. Grueschow, B., O. Kwon, I.G. Main & J.W. Rudnicki (2003). Observation and modelling of the suction pump effect during rapid dilatant slip, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(5), 1226, doi:10.1029/2002GL015905.
  82. Chastin, S.F.M. & I.G. Main (2003). Statistical analysis of daily seismic event rate as a precursor to volcanic eruptions, Geophys. Res. Lett.  30(13), 1671, doi:10.1029/2003GL016900.
  83. Ojala, I., B.T. Ngwenya, I.G. Main & S.C. Elphick (2003). Correlation of microseismic and chemical properties of brittle deformation in Locharbriggs sandstone, J. Geophys. Res. 108 (B5), 2268, doi:10.1029/2002JB002277.LINK
  84. Ngwenya, B.T., O. Kwon, S.C. Elphick & I.G. Main (2003). Permeability evolution during progressive development of deformation bands in porous sandstones, J. Geophys. Res. 108, (B7), 2343, doi:10.1029/2002JB001854.
  85. Huc, M. & I.G. Main (2003). Anomalous stress diffusion in earthquake triggering: correlation length, time dependence, and directionality, J. Geophys. Res. 108, (B7), 2324, doi:10.1029/2001JB001645.
  86. Colombo, S., M.C. Forde, I.G. Main, & J. Halliday (2003) AE monitoring of concrete bridge beams in-situ, The Structural Engineer, 81, 41-46.
  87. Colombo, I.S., I.G. Main & M.C. Forde (2003). Assessing damage of a reinforced concrete beam using ‘b-value’ analysis of acoustic emission signals, J. Materials in Civil Engineering. 15 (3), 280-286.
  88. Koravos, C.G., I.G. Main, T.M. Tsapanos, & R.M.W. Musson (2003). Perceptible earthquakes in the broad Aegean area, Tectonophysics 371, 175-186.
  89. Al-Kindy, F. & I.G. Main (2003). Testing self-organized criticality in the crust using entropy: a regional study of global earthquake populations, J. Geophys. Res. 108, 2521, doi:10.1029/2002JB002230.
  90. Ojala, I., B.T. Ngwenya & I.G. Main (2004). Loading rate dependence of permeability evolution in porous aeolian sandstones, J. Geophys. Res. 109, B01204, doi:10.1029/2002JB002347. LINK
  91. Seher, T. & I.G. Main (2004). A statistical evaluation of a ‘stress-forecast’ earthquake, Geophys. J. Int., 157, 187-193. LINK
  92. Song, I., S.C. Elphick, N. Odling, I.G. Main & B.T. Ngwenya (2004). Hydromechanical behaviour of fine-grained calcilutite and fault gouge from the Aigion Fault Zone, Greece, Comptes Rendus Geoscience 336, 445-454. LINK
  93. Song, I., S.C. Elphick, I.G. Main, B.T. Ngwenya, N.W. Odling, & N.F. Smyth (2004). One-dimensional fluid diffusion induced by constant-rate flow injection: theoretical analysis and application to the determination of fluid permeability and specific storage of a cored rock sample, J. Geophys. Res.109, B05207, doi:10.1029/2002JB002395. LINK
  94. Bruderer-Weng, C., P. Cowie, Y. Bernabe & I. Main (2004). Relating flow channelling to tracer dispersion in heterogeneous networks, Advances in Water Resources 27, 843-855. LINK
  95. Liu, E., S. Vlastos, I. G. Main & M. Schoenberg (2004). Modeling seismic wave propagation during fluid injection in a fracture network: Effects of pore pressure on time-lapse seismic signatures, The Leading Edge, 23, 778-783. LINK
  96. Ojala I O., I. G. Main & B. T. Ngwenya (2004). Strain rate and temperature dependence of Omori law scaling constants of AE data: implications for earthquake foreshock-aftershock sequences. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24617, doi: 10.1029/2004GL020781. LINK
  97. Colombo, S., I.G. Main, M. Shigeishi & M. C. Forde (2004). NDT integrity and load carrying assessment of concrete bridges, in proc., 2nd International Conference of the International Association for Bridge Maintenance & Safety, Kyoto, ISBN 90 5809 680 7. LINK
  98. McKernon, C. & I.G. Main (2005). Regional variations in the diffusion of triggered seismicity, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B05S05, doi:10.1029/2004JB003387. LINK
  99. Kwon, O., B.T. Ngwenya, I.G. Main & S.C. Elphick (2005). Permeability evolution during deformation of siliclastic sandstones from Moab, in Utah, in Sorkhabi, R. & Y. Tsuji (eds.), American Association of Petroleum Geologists Memoir 85, Faults, Fluid Flow, and Petroleum Traps, 219-236. LINK
  100. Colombo, S., M.C. Forde, I.G. Main, M. Shigeishi (2005). Predicting the ultimate bending capacity of concrete beams from the ”relaxation ratio” analysis of AE signals, Construction and Building Materials, 19, 746-754. LINK
  101. Colombo, S., M.C. Forde, I.G. Main, J. Halliday & M. Shigeishi (2005) AE energy analysis on concrete bridge beams, Materials and Structures, 38: 283, 851 – 856. LINK
  102. Kay, M.A., I. G. Main, S. C. Elphick & B. T. Ngwenya (2006). Fault-gouge diagenesis at shallow burial depth: solution-precipitation reactions in well-sorted and poorly-sorted powders of crushed sandstone, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 243, 607-614. LINK
  103. Vlastos, S., E. Liu, I. G. Main, M. Schoenberg, C. Narteau, X.-Y. Li & B. Maillot (2006). Dual simulations of fluid flow and seismic wave propagation in a fractured network: effects of pore pressure on seismic signature, Geophys. J. Int. 166, 825-838 LINK.
  104. Main, I.G., L. Li, K.J. Heffer, O. Papasouliotis & T. Leonard (2006). Long-range, critical-point dynamics in oilfield flow rate data, Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L18308, doi:10.1029/2006GL027357. LINK
  105. Heffer, K., X. Zhang, N. Koutsabeloulis, I. Main and L. Li (2007). Identification of activated (therefore potentially conductive) faults and fractures through statistical correlations in production and injection rates and coupled flow-geomechanical modelling, Society of Petroleum Engineers, paper no. 107164, 9pp. LINK
  106. Odling, N.W.A, S.C. Elphick, P. Meredith, I. Main & B.T. Ngwenya (2007). Laboratory measurements of hydrodynamic saline dispersion within a micro-fracture network induced in a granite, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 260, 407-418. LINK
  107. Vlastos, S., E.Liu, I. G. Main & C. Narteau (2007). Numerical simulation of wave propagation in 2-D fractured media: scattering attenuation at different stages of the growth of a fracture population, Geophys. J. Int. 171, 865-880. LINK
  108. Main, I.G., L. Li, K. Heffer, O. Papasouliotis, T. Leonard, N. Koutsebaloulis & X. Zhang (2007). The statistical reservoir model: Calibrating faults and fractures, and predicting reservoir response to water flood, in Jolley, S., Barr, D., Walsh, J.J. & Knipe, R.J. (eds.), Structurally Complex Reservoirs, Geol. Soc. London special publications, 292, 469-482. LINK
  109. Zhang, X., N. Koutsebaloulis, K. Heffer, I. Main and L. Li (2007). Coupled geomechanics-flow modelling at and below a critical stress state used to investigate common statistical properties of field production data, in Jolley, S., Barr, D., Walsh, J.J. & Knipe, R.J. (eds.), Structurally Complex Reservoirs, Geol. Soc. London special publications, 292, 453-468. LINK
  110. Main, I.G., L. Li, J. McCloskey & M. Naylor (2008). Effect of the Sumatran mega-earthquake on the global magnitude cut-off and event rate, Nature Geoscience 1, p142 LINK
  111. Naylor, M. & I.G. Main (2008). Cell scale self-organisation in the OFC model for earthquake dynamics: Re-rupturing, memory loss and quantisation of strain, Eur. Phys. J. B 64, 139-146 LINK
  112. Main, I.G & M. Naylor (2008). Maximum entropy production and earthquake dynamics, Geophys. Res.Lett. 35, L19311, doi:10.1029/2008GL035590, LINK, ELECTRONIC REPRINT
  113. Greenhough, J. & I.G. Main (2008). A Poisson model for earthquake frequency uncertainties in seismic hazard analysis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L19313, doi:10.1029/2008GL035353 LINK
  114. Baraka-Lokmane, S., I.G. Main, B.T. Ngwenya & S.C. Elphick (2009). Application of complementary methods for more robust characterization of sandstone cores, Marine and Petroleum Geology 26, 39-56. LINK
  115. Naylor, M., I.G. Main & S.Touati (2009). Quantifying uncertainty on mean earthquake inter-event times for a finite sample, J. Geophys. Res., 114, B01316, doi:10.1029/2008JB005870. LINK
  116. Baraka-Lokmane,S., I. G. Main, B. T. Ngwenya, S. C. Elphick, C. Jones, and S. A. Hamilton (2009). Correlation between microstructure and flow behavior in porous sandstones, Petroleum Science and Technology 27, 511-529. LINK
  117. Touati, S., M. Naylor & I. G. Main (2009). The origin and non-universality of the earthquake inter-event time distribution, Phys. Rev. Lett. 102, 168501. Doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.102.168501. LINK
  118. Heap, M. J., P. Baud, P.G. Meredith, A. F. Bell, and I. G. Main (2009. Time-dependent brittle creep in Darley Dale sandstone, J. Geophys. Res., 114, B07203, doi:10.1029/2008JB006212. LINK
  119. Naylor, M., J. Greenhough, J. McCloskey, A. F. Bell & I.G. Main (2009). Statistical evaluation of characteristic earthquakes in the frequency-magnitude distributions of Sumatra and other subduction zone regions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20303, doi:10.1029/2009GL040460. LINK
  120. Main, I.G & M. Naylor (2010). Entropy production and self-organized (sub) criticality in earthquake dynamics, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. A 2010 368, 131-144, doi: 10.1098/rsta.2009.0206. LINK
  121. Graham, C.C., S. Stanchits, I. G. Main & G. Dresen (2010). Source analysis of acoustic emission data: a comparison of polarity and moment tensor inversion methods, Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 47, 161–169. LINK
  122. Heffer, K., J. Greenhough, I. G. Main, X. Zhang, A. M. Hussein, G. Nasreldin & N. Koutsabeloulis (2010). Low-cost monitoring of inter-well reservoir communication paths through correlations in well rate fluctuations: case studies from mature fields in the North Sea, Society of Petroleum Engineers paper SPE 130734. LINK
  123. Touati, S., M. Naylor, I.G. Main & M. Christie (2011). Masking of earthquake triggering behaviour by a high background rate and implications for epidemic-type aftershock sequence inversions, J. Geophys. Res., 116, B03304, doi:10.1029/2010JB007544. LINK
  124. Bell, A., J. Greenhough, M. J. Heap & I. G. Main (2011). Challenges for forecasting based on accelerating rates of earthquakes at volcanoes and laboratory analogues, Geophys. J. Int 185, 718-723. LINK
  125. Heap, M.J., P. Baud, P.G. Meredith, S. Vinciguerra, A.F. Bell & I. G. Main (2011). Brittle creep in basalt and its application to time-dependent volcano deformation, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 307, 71-82. LINK
  126. Bell, A. F., M. Naylor, M. J. Heap & I. G. Main (2011), Forecasting volcanic eruptions and other material failure phenomena: An evaluation of the failure forecast method, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15304, doi:10.1029/2011GL048155. LINK
  127. Zhang, X., N. Koutsabeloulis, T. Kristiansen, K. Heffer, I. Main, J. Greenhough, A. Mohamad (2011). Modelling of Depletion-Induced Microseismic Events by Coupled Reservoir Simulation: Application to Valhall Field, Society of Petroleum Engineers, SPE 143378. LINK
  128. Meredith, P.G., I.G. Main, O.C. Clint & L.Li (2012). On the threshold of flow in a tight natural rock, Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L04307, doi:10.1029/2011GL050649. LINK
  129. Main, I. & M. Naylor (2012). Extreme events and predictability of catastrophic failure in composite materials and in the Earth, Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 205, 183–197. DOI: 10.1140/epjst/e2012-01570-x LINK
  130. Main, I.G., A.F. Bell, P.G. Meredith, S. Geiger & S. Touati (2012). The dilatancy-diffusion hypothesis and earthquake predictability, in Healy, D., Butler, R. W. H., Shipton, Z. K. & Sibson, R. H. (eds). Faulting, Fracturing and Igneous Intrusion in the Earth’s Crust. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 367, 215–230. ELECTRONIC REPRINT
  131. Ekanem, A. M., J. Wei, X-Y. Li, M. Chapman & I.G. Main (2012). P-wave attenuation anisotropy in fractured media: A seismic physical modelling study, Geophysical Prospecting, 14 pp. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2478.2012.01127.x LINK
  132. Lennartz-Sassinek, S., Z. Danku, F. Kun, I. G. Main and M. Zaiser (2013). Damage growth in fibre bundle models with localized load sharing and environmentally-assisted ageing, IC-MSQUARE 2012: International Conference on Mathematical Modelling in Physical Sciences IOP Publishing, Journal of Physics: Conference Series 410 012064, doi:10.1088/1742-6596/410/1/012064 LINK
  133. Lennartz-Sassinek, S., M. Zaiser, I. G. Main, C. Manzato and S. Zapperi (2013). Emergent Patterns of Localized Damage as a Precurser to Catastrophic Failure in a Random Fuse Network, Phys. Rev. E. 87, 042811, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.87.042811 LINK
  134. Bell, A.F., M. Naylor, and I. G. Main (2013). Convergence of the frequency-size distribution of global earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 2585-2589, doi:10.1002/grl.50416 LINK
  135. Bell, A. F., Naylor, M. & I. G. Main (2013). The limits of predictability of volcanic eruptions from accelerating rates of earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int., doi:10.1093/gji/ggt191 LINK
  136. Lennartz-Sassinek, S., I. G. Main, Z. Danku & F. Kun (2013). Time evolution of damage due to environmentally-assisted ageing in a fiber bundle model, Phys. Rev. E. 88, 032802, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.88.032802 LINK
  137. Annewandter, R., Main, I.G. & S. Geiger-Boschung & (2013). High-Resolution Numerical Simulations of Capillary Trapping of CO2 in Fractured Formations, Society of Petroleum Engineers publication no. SPE-166002, doi: LINK.
  138. Kun, F., I. Varga, S. Lennartz-Sassinek & I.G. Main (2013). Approach to failure in porous granular materials under compression, Phys. Rev. E. 88, 062207, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.88.062207 LINK
  139. Ekanem, A., X.-Y. Li, M. Chapman, I. Main & J. Wei (2014). Effect of fracture aperture on P-wave attenuation: a seismic physical modelling study, ISRN Geophysics 2014, 241279, doi:10.1155/2014/241279 LINK
  140. Filgueira, R., M. Atkinson, A. Bell, I. Main & B. Snelling (2014). VarPy: A Python library for volcanology and rock physics data analysis, in proc. 4th Workshop on Python for High Performance and Scientific Computing (PyHPC 2014). LINK
  141. Kun, F., I. Varga, S. Lennartz-Sassinek & I.G. Main (2014). Rupture cascades in a discrete element model of a porous sedimentary rock, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 065501, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.112.065501 LINK. (See also Physics focus article ‘How rocks break’ – LINK)
  142. Touati, S., M. Naylor & I.G. Main (2014). Statistical Modeling of the 1997–1998 Colfiorito Earthquake Sequence: Locating a Stationary Solution within Parameter Uncertainty, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 104, 885-897. LINK
  143. Filgueira, R., M. Atkinson, A. Bell, I. Main, S. Boon, C. Kilburn, P. Meredith (2014). eScience Gateway Stimulating Collaboration in Rock Physics and Volcanology, in proc., 10th IEEE International Conference on e-Science, 187-195. LINK
  144. Lennartz-Sassinek, S., I.G. Main, M. Zaiser & C. Graham (2014). Acceleration and localization of subcritical crack growth in a natural composite material, Phys. Rev. E 90, 052401, DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.90.052401. LINK
  145. Ekanem, A.M., X.-Y. Li, M. Chapman, M. and I.G. Main (2015). Seismic attenuation characteristics in fractured porous media: insights from a hybrid numerical and analytical model, J. Geophys. Eng. 12, 210–219. doi:10.1088/1742-2132/12/2/210. LINK
  146. Vasseur, J., F.B. Wadsworth, Y. Lavallée, A.F. Bell, I.G. Main & D.B. Dingwell (2015). Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting, Sci. Rep. 5, 13259; doi: 10.1038/srep13259 LINK
  147. Roberts, N.S., A.F. Bell & I.G. Main (2015). Are volcanic seismic b-values high, and if so when? J. Volcan. Geothermal. Res. 308, 127–141. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.10.021 LINK
  148. Touati, S., M. Naylor & I. Main (2016). Detection of change points in underlying earthquake rates, with application to global mega-earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int. 204, 753-767, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggv398 LINK
  149. Pal, G, F. Raischel, F. Kun, S. Lennartz-Sassinek & I.G. Main (2016). Record-breaking events during the compressive failure of porous materials, Phys. Rev. E. 93, 033006, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.93.033006. LINK
  150. Roberts, N. S., A. F. Bell, and I. G. Main (2016), Mode switching in volcanic seismicity: El Hierro 2011–2013, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL068809. LINK
  151. Tait, D., N. Geiger, B. Worton, A. Bell, & I. Main (2016). Nonlinear modelling of experimental rock failure data, in Dupuy, J.-F. & J. Josse (eds.), Proceedings of the 31st International workshop on Statistical Modelling Vol. II, Rennes, France, 151-154. LINK
  152. Ekanem, A., X.Y. Li, M. Chapman & I.G. Main (2016). Effects of CO2 on P-wave attenuation: a synthetic modelling study, J. App. Geophys., doi:10.1016/j.jappgeo.2016.10.025 LINK
  153. Pál, G., Z. Jánosi, F. Kun & I. G. Main (2016). Fragmentation by slow compression of porous rocks, Physical Review E 94, 053003, DOI: LINK. (Highlighted as an editor’s selection by PRE)
  154. Jiang, X., H. Liu, I.G. Main, & E.K.H. Salje (2017). Predicting mining collapse: super-jerks and the appearance of record-breaking events in coal as collapse precursors, Phys Rev E. 96, 023004. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.96.023004 LINK
  155. Vasseur, J., F.B. Wadsworth, M.J. Heap, I.G. Main & D.B. Dingwell (2017). Does an inter-flaw length control the accuracy of rupture forecasting in geological materials?, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 475, 181–189. DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2017.07.011 LINK
  156. Wang, J., I.G. Main & R.M.W. Musson (2017). Earthquake clustering in modern seismicity and its relationship with strong historical earthquakes around Beijing, China, Geophys. J. Int. 211, 1027–1040, LINK
  157. Bell, A. F., M. Naylor, S. Hernandez, I. G. Main, H. E. Gaunt, P. Mothes & M. Ruiz, (2018). Volcanic eruption forecasts from accelerating rates of quasi-periodic long-period earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett. 2017GL076429R, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076429 LINK
  158. Li, X., I. Main & A. Jupe (2018). Induced Seismicity at the UK “Hot Dry Rock” Test Site for Geothermal Energy Production, Geophysical Journal International, ggy135, LINK
  159. Kun, F., G. Pál, I. Varga & I. G. Main (2019). Effect of disorder on the spatial structure of damage in slowly compressed porous rocks, Phil. Trans. A, 377 20170393; DOI 10.1098/rsta.2017.0393. LINK
  160. Bayliss, K., M. Naylor & I.G. Main (2019). Probabilistic identification of earthquake clusters using rescaled nearest neighbour distance networks, Geophys. J. Int. 217, 487–503, LINK
  161. Harries, R., L.A. Kirstein, A. Whittaker, M. Attal, Mikael & I. Main (2019). Impact of recycling and lateral sediment input on grain size fining trends: Implications for reconstructing tectonic and climate forcings in ancient sedimentary systems, Basin Research LINK
  162. Singh, J., A. Curtis, Y. Zhao, A. Cartwright-Taylor & I. Main (2019). Coda wave interferometry for accurate simultaneous monitoring of velocity and acoustic source locations in experimental rock physics. J. Geophys. Res: Solid Earth, 124, 5629-5655. LINK
  163. Xu, X., H. Chong, I. Main, M. Mineter, R. De Bold, M.C. Forde, C. Gair, P. Madden & E. Angus (2019). Using statistical models and machine learning techniques to process big data from the Forth Road Bridge, in DeJong, Schooling and Viggiani (eds), International Conference on Smart Infrastructure and Construction (ICSIC), Cambridge, 411-419,
  164. Singh, J.R., P.A. Cilli, A.M. Hosa & I.G. Main (2020). Digital rock physics in four dimensions: simulating cementation and effect on seismic velocity, Geophys. J. Int. 222, 1606–1619,
  165. Cartwright-Taylor, A., I.G. Main, B. Butler, F. Fusseis, A. King & M. Flynn (2020). Catastrophic failure: how and when? Insights from 4D in-situ x-ray micro-tomography, J. Geophys. Res: Solid Earth. 
  166. Bayliss, K., M. Naylor J. Illian & I.G. Main (2020). Data-driven optimization of seismicity models using diverse datasets: generation, evaluation and ranking using inlabru, J. Geophys. Res: Solid Earth,


  1. Main, I. (1996). Statistical physics, seismogenesis, and seismic hazard, Rev. Geophys. 34, 433-462.
  2. Main, I.G. (1997). Earthquakes – long odds on prediction, Nature 385, 19-20; reprinted in Society for Earthquake and
    Civil Engineering Dynamics Newsletter
    11:2, 1-2.
  3. Main, I.G (1999). Earthquake prediction debate – Concluding Remarks.
  4. Main, I.G., K. Mair, O. Kwon, S.C. Elphick & B.T. Ngwenya (2001). Experimental constraints on the mechanical and hydraulic properties of deformation bands, in porous sandstones: a review, in Holdsworth, R.E., Strachan, R.A., Magloughlin, J.F. & Knipe, R.J. (eds), The nature and significance of fault zone weakening, Geol. Soc. Lond. Spec. Publ. 186, 43-63.
  5. Bonnet, E., O. Bour, N.E. Odling, P. Davy, I. Main, P. Cowie & B. Berkowitz (2001). Scaling of fracture systems in geological media, Rev. Geophys. 39, 347-383.
  6. Main, I.G., M. Naylor, J. Greenhough, S. Touati, A.F. Bell & J. McCloskey (2011). Model selection and uncertainty in earthquake hazard analysis, in Köhler & Nishijima (eds), Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, Faber, Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-66986-3, pp. 735-743. LINK
  7. Jordan, T., Y. Chen, P. Gasparini, R. Madariaga, I. Main, W. Marzocchi, G. Papadopoulos, G. Sobolev, K. Yamaoka & J. Zschau (2011). Operational earthquake forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization. Annals Of Geophysics, 54(4), 361-391.
  8. Sharma, S., A., D. N. Baker, A. Bhattacharyya, A. Bunde, V.P. Dimri, H.K. Gupta, V.K. Gupta, S. Lovejoy, I.G. Main, D. Schertzer, H. von Storch & N.W. Watkins (2012). Complexity and Extreme Events in Geosciences: An Overview, in Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective, AGU Geophysical Monograph Series 196 1-16. LINK
  9. Direito, S.O.L., S. Clark, C. Cousins, Y. Fujita, J. Gluyas, S. Harley, R.J. Holmes, I.B. Hutchinson, V.A. Kudryavtsev, J. Lloyd, I.G. Main, M. Naylor, S. Payler, N. Smith, N.J.C. Spooner, S. Telfer, L.F. Thompson, K. Wouters., J. Wragg, C. Cockell (2015). Geological Repositories: Scientific Priorities and Potential High Technology Transfer from the Space Sector, Mineralogical Magazine 79(6), 1651–1664.

Editing of special volumes

  1. Cowie, P., R. Knipe & I.G. Main (1996). Scaling laws for fault and fracture populations – analyses and applications, J. Struct. Geol., 18, v-xi. LINK
  2. Matsu’ura, M., C.J. Marone, S.R. McNutt, M. Takeo, I.G. Main, and J.B. Rundle (1997). Earthquake generation Processes: Environmental Aspects and Physical Modelling, Tectonophys, Vol. 277:1-3, vii-viii. LINK
  3. Hainzl, S., G. Zoeller & I. Main (2006). Dynamics of seismicity patterns and earthquake triggering, Tectonophysics, Vol. 424:3-4, 135-138. LINK

Book Chapters

  1. Main, I.G. (1992). The Earth’s crust and mantle, revision of chapter 26 of Holmes, A., Principles of physical geology, fourth edition, (edited by D. Duff), Chapman and Hall, London, 599-615.  Further info
  2. Mulargia F., I. Main, M. Ciccotti, S. Castellaro & J. Kertesz (2003). The physics of complex systems: applications to earthquakes, in Mulargia, F. & R.J. Geller (eds.), Earthquake Science and seismic risk reduction, Nato Science Series, Sub-series IV: Earth & Environmental Sciences Vol 32, 102-147, Kluwer, Dordrecht. Further Info
  3. Zimmermann, R. & I. Main (2004). Hydromechanical behaviour of fractured rocks, in Gueguen, Y. and Bouteca, M. (eds.), Mechanics of fluid-saturated rocks, Elsevier Academic Press, London, 363-422.  LINK
  4. Bell, A.F., C.R.J. Kilburn & I.G. Main (2015). Volcanic Eruptions: Real-Time Forecasting of, in Beer, M., E. Patelli, I. Kougioumtzoglou and S.-K. Au (eds), Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering, Springer-Verlag Berlin, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-36197-5_43-1. Further Info
  5. Main, I.G., F. Kun and A.F. Bell (2017). Crackling noise in digital and real rocks – implications for forecasting catastrophic failure in porous granular media, in Salje, E.K.H., A. Saxena & A. Planes (eds.) Avalanches in Functional Materials and Geophysics, Springer, 77-97. DOI:10.1007/978-3-319-45612-6_5. LINK

Commentary and perspectives

  1. Main, I.G. (1992). New perspectives in rock mechanics and crustal dynamics, European Geophys. Soc. Newsletter 43, p15.
  2. Shimmield, G.B., S.C. Elphick, B.T. Ngwenya, I.G. Main, B.G.D. Smart, & B.R. Crawford (1992). The combined influence of stress-state and P/T conditions on reservoir fluid chemistry, Geoscientist 1, p5.
  3. Cowie, P.A., I.G. Main & R. Knipe (1995). Looking for patterns in fault populations, EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 76, p125. LINK
  4. Cowie, P.A., R. Knipe & I.G. Main (1995). Faults in focus, Terra Nova 7, 4-6. LINK
  5. Hamilton, T., S. Dee & I. Main (1998). Fault damage zone scaling and spatial organisation of granulation seams in porous sandstone: Implications for flow properties, in Walker, C. (ed.), PETEX ‘98, Geol. Soc. Lond. Petroleum Group, Paper K9
  6. Main, I.G. (1999). Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal? Nature website debate
  7. Main, I., B. Malamud, C. Bean & J. McCloskey (2006). Scale in structure and dynamics, A&G 47 6.24–6.25. LINK
  8. Main, I. (2006). Earthquakes – A hand on the aftershock trigger, Nature 441, 704-705. LINK
  9. Sargeant, S., L. Ottemöller, B. Baptie, A. Bell, A. Curtis & I. Main (2009). Frontiers of Seismology, A&G 50, 4.31-4.34. LINK
  10. Greenhough, J., A.F. Bell & I.G. Main (2009). Comment on “Relationship between accelerating seismicity and quiescence, two precursors to large earthquakes” by Arnaud Mignan and Rita Di Giovambattista, Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L17303, doi:10.1029/2009GL039846 LINK
  11. Main, I.G. (2013). Little Earthquakes in the Lab, Physics 6, 20, DOI: 10.1103/Physics.6.20 LINK
  12. Main, I.G. (2017). Scale-model seismicity – taking the rough with the smooth, Geology, 45, 859-860. doi:10.1130/focus092017.1 LINK
  13. Ziolkowski, A., A. Bell, C. Browitt, A. Curtis, C. Macdonald, I. Main, S. Peacock, N. Rawlinson, D. Storchak & A. Walker, Frontiers of seismology, Astronomy & Geophysics, 6, 4.29–4.35,

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