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Failure forecasting

Rates of geophysical precursors, such as seismicity and ground deformation, can increase prior to volcanic eruptions and landslides. These signals are often interpreted as reflecting the material failure of parts of the volcanic or landslide system under increased stress. I develop new statistical methods to analyse these datasets, trying to understand the processes that generate them, and how they can be used to provide forecasts of future activity.

Key papers:

Ignatieva et al., SiV, 2019, Point process models for quasi-periodic volcanic earthquakes

Bell et al., GRL, 2018, Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long-Period Earthquakes

Bell, GRL, 2018, Predictability of Landslide Timing From Quasi-Periodic Precursory Earthquakes


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