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Transitioning Into The ANthropocene (TITAN)

Transitioning Into The ANthropocene (TITAN)

Learning about the climate system from data of the 19th and early 20th century.

Publications and References

For reprints and additional papers (not all TITAN) see also Gabi Hegerl’s publication page.

Publications from the TITAN project


Cowan T., Hegerl G.C., Schurer A., Tett S.F.B., Vautard R., Yiou P., Jezequel A., Otto F.E.L., Harrington L.J., Ng B. (2020): Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heatwaves across the central United States. Nature Communications 11, 2870, doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16676-w.

Cowan T., Undorf S., Hegerl G.C. et al. (2020): Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2020). doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-0771-7.

Schurer A., Ballinger A., Friedman A. and Hegerl G (2020) Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 104026, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab83ab.

Friedman A.R., Hegerl G.C., Schurer A.P., Lee S., Kong W., Cheng W. and Chiang J.C.H. 2020: Forced and Unforced Decadal Behavior of the Interhemispheric SST Contrast during the Instrumental Period (1881–2012): Contextualizing the Late 1960s–Early 1970s Shift. J. Climate, 33, 3487–3509, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0102.1.


Benjamin D. Santer, Céline J. W. Bonfils, Qiang Fu, John C. Fyfe, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Carl Mears, Jeffrey F. Painter, Stephen Po-Chedley, Frank J. Wentz, Mark D. Zelinka & Cheng-Zhi (2019): Celebrating the anniversary of three key events in climate change science.  Nature Climate Change 9, 180–182, doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0424-x.

Broennimann S., Franke J., Nussbaumer S., Hegerl G., Schurer A. et al (2019): Last phase of the Little Ice Age forced by volcanic eruptions. Nature Geoscience 12, 650–656, doi: 10.1038/s41561-019-0402-y.

Hegerl G.C., Broennimann S., Cowan T., Friedman A.R., Hawkins E., Iles C.E., Mueller W., Schurer A. and Undorf S. (2019): Causes of climate change over the historical record. Environmental Research Letters 14, 123006, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557.

Schurer Andrew, Hegerl Gabriele, Luterbacher Juerg, Broennimann Stefan, Cowan Tim, Tett Simon, Zanchettin Davide and Timmreck Claudia (2019): Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer. Environmental Research Letters 14(9), 094019, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab3a10.

Harrington L.J., Otto F.E.L., Cowan T. and Hegerl G.C. (2019): Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave. Climate Dynamics (2019), doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04820-2.


Neukom R., Schurer A. P., Steiger N. J. and Hegerl G. C. (2018). Possible causes of data model discrepancy in the temperature history of the last Millennium. Scientific Reports, 8(1), 7572, doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-25862-2.

Undorf S., D. Polson, M. Bollasina, Y. Ming, A. Schurer and Hegerl G.C. (2018): Detectable impact of local and remote anthropogenic aerosols on the 20th century changes of West African and South Asian monsoon precipitation. J Geophys. Res., doi: 10.1029/2017JD027711.

Hegerl G.C., Broennimann S., Schurer A. and Cowan T. (2018): The early 20th century warming. WIRES climate change, doi: 10.1002/wcc.522.

Schurer A., Hegerl G.C., Ribes A., Polson D., Morice C. and Tett S.F.B. (2018): Estimating the transient climate response from observed warming.  J. Climate 31 (20): 8645–8663, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0717.1.


Iles C. and Hegerl G.C. (2017) Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in Decadal Temperature Trends; Env. Res. Lett. 12(11), doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9152.

Knutti R., Rugenstein M.A.A. and Hegerl G.C. (2017): Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity. Nature Geoscience, doi: 10.1038/NGEO3017.

Schurer A., Mann M.E., Hawkins E., Tett S.F.B and Hegerl G.C. (2017): Importance of the Pre-Industrial Baseline in Determining the Likelihood of Exceeding the Paris Limits. Nature Climate Change 7, 563-567 doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3345.

Wilcox L., Yiou P., Hauser M., Lott F., Colfescu I, Dong B. Hegerl G., Shaffrey L., Sutton R. and van Oldenborgh G.J. (2017): Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer precipitation of summer 2012 to climate change and other causes. CLimate Dynamics 50(9-10), doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3822-7.

Sillmann J., Thorarinsdottir T., Keenlyside N., Schaller N., Alexander L.V., Hegerl G., Seneviratne S.I., Vautard R., Zhang X. and Zwiers F.W. (2017): Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities. Weather and Climate extremes, 18, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2017.10.003.

Anchukaitis K; Rob Wilson; Keith R Briffa; Ulf Buentgen; Edward R Cook; Rosanne D’Arrigo; Nicole Davi; Jan Esper; David Frank; Bjorn Gunnarson; Gabi Hegerl; Samuli Helama; Stefan Klesse; Paul Krusic; Hans Linderholm; Vladimir Myglan; Timothy Osborn; Peng Zhang; Milos Rydval; Lea Schneider; Andrew Schurer; Greg Wiles; Eduardo Zorita (2017): Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions. Quaternary Science Reviews 163 (2017) 1-22, doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.02.020.

Cowan T., Hegerl G. C., Colfescu I., Bollasina M., Purich A. and Boschat G. (2017): Factors contributing to record-breaking heat waves over the Great Plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl. J Climate, 30(7), doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0436.1.

Freychet N., Tett S.F.B., Wang J. and Hegerl G.C. (2017): Summer heat waves over Eastern China: Dynamical processes and trend attribution. Environmental Research Letters 12, 024015, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ba3.

Hawkins E., Ortega, Suckling, Schurer, Hegerl, Jones, Joshi, Masson-Delmotte, Mignot, Thorne and van Oldenborg (2017): Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period. Bull. Am. Met. Soc, Sept. 2017, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1

Polson D. and Hegerl G.C. (2017): Strengthening contrast between precipitation in tropical wet and dry regions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 365-373, doi: 10.1002/2016GL071194.

Brunner L., Hegerl G.C. and Steiner A. (2017): Connecting Atmospheric blocking to European temperature extremes in spring. J Climate, 30, 585-594, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0518.1.


Wilson, R., Anchukaitis, K., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Cook, E., D’Arrigo, R., Davi, N., Esper, J., Frank, D., Gunnarson, B., Hegerl, G., Helama, S., Klesse, S., Krusic, P. J., Linderholm, H. W., Myglan, V., Osborn, T. J., Rydval, M., Schneider, L., Schurer, A., Wiles, G., Zhang, P. and Zorita, E. (2016). Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context. Quaternary Science Reviews, 134, 1–18. doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.12.005

Polson D., Hegerl G.C. and Solomon S. (2016): <a href="" title="Precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island records
“> Precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island records. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 074024 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074024.

Lehner, F., Schurer A.P., Hegerl G.C., Deser C. and Froehlicher T.L. (2016): Importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (6), doi: 10.1002/2016GL067935.

Luterbacher J. et al. 2016 (Incl. Hegerl and Schurer): European summer temperatures since Roman times. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 024001, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001.


PAGES2k-PMIP3 group. (incl. Hegerl) (2015): Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium. Clim. Past, 11, 1673–1699, doi: 10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015.

Iles C. and Hegerl G.C. (2015): Volcanic eruptions affect global streamflow. Nature Geoscience, doi: 10.1038/ngeo2545.

Hegerl G. (2015): Use of models and observations in event attribution. Perspective in Environ. Res. Lett. 10 (2015) 071001.

Hegerl G.C., Black E., Allan R. P., Ingram W.J. Polson D., Trenberth K.E., Chadwick R.S., Arkin P.A. Balan Sarojini B., Becker A., Blyth E., Dai A,, Durack P., Easterling D., Fowler H., Kendon E., Huffman G.J., Liu C., Marsh R., New M., Osborn T.J., Skliris N., Stott P.A., Vidale P.L., Wijffels S.E., Wilcox L.J., Willett K. and Zhang X. (2015): Quantifying changes in the global water cycle . Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 96, 1097-1115.

Schurer A.P., Hegerl G.C., Obrochta S.P. (2015): Determining the likelihood of 1 pauses and surges in global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 5974-5982.

Krueger O., Tett S.F.B. and Hegerl G. (2015) Evaluation of mechanisms of hot and cold days in climate models over Central Europe , Environmental Research Letters, 10, 014002.


Iles C. and Hegerl G.C. (2014): The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models. Environmental Research Letters, 9, No. 104012.

Lennard C. and Hegerl G.C. (2014): Relating changes in synoptic circulation to the surface rainfall response using self-organising maps. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2169-6.

Polson D., Bollasina M., Hegerl G.C. and Wilcox, L. (2014): Decreased monsoon precipitation in the 1 Northern Hemisphere due to anthropogenic aerosols. GRL, 41, 6023–6029, doi:10.1002/2014GL060811.

Hawkins E., Anderson B. Diffenbaugh N., Mahlstein I., Betts R. Hegerl G., Joshi M., Knutti R., McNeall D., Solomon S., Sutton R., Syktus J., Vecchi G. (2014): Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates . Brief Communication Arising, Nature 511, 7505; E3-E5.

Hegerl G.C. and Stott P.A. (2014): From Past to Future Warming. Perspective in Science, 314, 844-845.

Hanlon H., Hegerl G.C. and Tett S.F.B (2014): Near-term prediction of impact relevant heatwave extremes. Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1191-3.

Schurer A., Tett S.F.B and Hegerl G.C. (2014): Small influence of solar variability on climate over the last millennium . Nature GeoScience 7, 104-108, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2040.

General references

Allen MR, Tett SFB, 1999, Clim. Dyn.15, 419

Allen, MR, Ingram W, 2002 Nature 419, 224.

Becker A et al. 2011: GPCC Data Base, 1-19.

Bitz CM et al. 2005 J. Climate, 18, 29032921.

Booth B et al. 2012, submitted.

Brohan, P. et al. 2006 J. Geophys.Res 111, D12106 Broennimann S 2009 Nature Geoscience: 735

Burridge R 2009, Geography dissertation, U. Edinburgh Compo GP et al. 2011 Q. J. R. Met. Soc., 137, 1

Cattiaux et al. 2010 Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L20704 DeGaetano A, Allen R 2002 J. Clim 15, 3188

Delworth T, Knutson T, 2000, Science, 287, 2246

DelSole, et al. 2011. J Clim. 24: 18.

Gillett NP et al. 2012 Geophys. Res. Let 39.L01704

Goosse H et al 2012 Clim Dyn, in press

Hasselmann K 1976 Tellus 28: 473.

Hasselmann K 1997 Clim. Dyn. 13, 601

Held I et al., 2010, J Climate 23, 2418.

Hewitt C et al. 2011Geosci. Model Dev. 4, 223-253

Kenyon J, Hegerl,GC , 2008 J. Climate 21, 3872

van Leeuwen PJ 2009 Mon Weather Rev 137:4089

Luterbacher JD et al. 2004: Science 303, 5

Mekis E, Vincent L 2011: Atm.-Ocean, 49,163

Meehl, et al. 2007. In IPCC AR4. Cambridge U. P.

Menne MJ et al. 2011, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN

Noake K et al. 2012. Geophys. Res. L. in press.

Otto FE et al., 2012: Geophys. Res. L. 39, in press.

Ogi M et al., 2010, Geophys. Res. Lett 37 , L07 701.

Pall P et al. incl Allen 2011: Nature, 470, 382.

Parker, D 2011 J. Geophys. Res., 116, D20125

Rayner NA et al. 2003 J. Geophys. Res.108 D14 4407

Seager R. et al. , 2008: J Climate 21, 3261

Schaer C et al. 2004: Nature, 427, 332.

Shaffrey L. et al. 2009 Climate 22, 1861-1896

Stott PD et al. 2004 Nature 432: 610-614.

Stott P et al. 2006 J. Climate 19: 3055.

Stott P et al. 2003 J Climate 16 4079-4093.

Wilson R et al (incl Tett) 2006, J.G.R 111, L10007

Wood K, Overland J 2010: Int. J. Climatology: 1269

Zhang X et al. Incl Hegerl 2007 Nature 448 461



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