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Ballinger, A. P., Schurer, A. P., O’Reilly, C. H. & Hegerl, G. C. (2023): The Importance of Accounting for the North Atlantic Oscillation When Applying Observational Constraints to European Climate Projections. Geophysical Research Letters. 50, 16, e2023GL103431.

Yule, E., Hegerl, G., Schurer, A. & Hawkins, E. (2023):  Using Early Extremes to place the 2022 UK Heatwaves into Historical Context. Atmospheric science letters. 24, 7, e1159.

Auld, G., Hegerl, G. C. & Papastathopoulos, (2023): Changes in the distribution of annual maximum temperatures in Europe. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography. 9, 1, p. 45-66

D.J. Fulton, B.J. Clarke and G.C. Hegerl (2023): Bias Correcting Climate Model Simulations Using Unpaired Image-to-Image Translation Networks DOI:

Yule, E. L., Hegerl, G., Schurer, A. & Hawkins (2023): Using early extremes to place the 2022 UK heat waves into historical context. Atm. lett. e1159.

Schurer, A., Hegerl, G. C., Goosse, H., Bollasina, M. A., England, M. H., Smith, D. & Tett, S. F. B. (2023): Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic oscillation on northern hemisphere climate, Env. Res. Lett. 18 044046

Thompson, V., Mitchell, D., Hegerl, G. C., Collins, M., Leach, N. J. & Slingo, J. M., (2023): The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves In: Nature Communications. 14, 1, 2152.

Schurer, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Goosse, H., Bollasina, M. A., England, M. H., Mineter, M. J., Smith, D. M. & Tett, S. F. B., (2023), Quantifying the contribution of forcing and three prominent modes of variability to historical climate. Climate of the Past. 19, 5, p. 943-957

Lücke, L. J., Schurer, A. P., Toohey, M., Marshall, L. R. & Hegerl, G. C. (2023): The effect of uncertainties in natural forcing records on simulated temperature during the last millennium. Climate of the Past. 19, 5, p. 959-978

Engdaw, M. M., Steiner, A. K., Hegerl, G. C. & Ballinger, A. P. (2023): Attribution of observed changes in extreme temperatures to anthropogenic forcing using CMIP6 models
Weather and Climate Extremes. 39, 100548.


Dalaiden, Q., Schurer, A. P., Kirchmeier‐young, M. C., Goosse, H. & Hegerl, G. C., (2022), West Antarctic Surface Climate Changes Since the Mid‐20th Century Driven by Anthropogenic Forcing. Res. Lett. 49, 16, e2022GL099543.

Franke, J., Evans, M. N., Schurer, A. & Hegerl, G. C., (2022) Climate change detection and attribution using observed and simulated tree-ring width. Climate of the Past. 18, 12, p. 2583-2597

Von Kietzell, A., Schurer, A. & Hegerl, G. C., (2022): Marine heatwaves in global sea surface temperature records since 1850. In: Env. Res. 17, 8, 084027.

Freychet, N., et al (2022): Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming. (E-pub ahead of print) Environ. Res. Lett. 17 064049

Befort, D. J., Brunner, L., Borchert, L. F., O’Reilly, C. H., Mignot, J., Ballinger, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Murphy, J. M. & Weisheimer, A. (2022): Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: Challenges and potential solutions. Geophys. Res. Lett.. 49, 15, e2022GL098568.

van Oldenborgh, G., Wehner, M. F., Vautard, R., Otto, F. E. L., Seneviratne, S. I., Stott, P. A., Hegerl, G. C., Philip, S. Y. & Kew, S. F., (2022): Attributing and projecting heatwaves is hard: We can do better. Earth’s Future. 10, 6, e2021EF002271.

Zanchettin D et al. (2022): Effects of forcing differences and initial conditions on inter-model agreement in the VolMIP volc-pinatubo full experiment. Geos. Model Dev 15(5) 2265-2292.

Hegerl G. C. (2022): Climate change is physics. Nature Comms Earth&Env 3(1)

O’Reilly, C. H. et al (2022): Projections of northern hemispherie extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty. Com. Earth&Env 2(1).

Olonscheck D., Schurer A. P., Lücke, L. J., Hegerl G. C. (2022): Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st Century. Nat. Comms 12(1)

Pulkkinen K et al. (2022) The value of values in climate science. Nature Clim. Change 12(1), 4-6


Fulton D. J. and Hegerl G. C. (2021): Testing Methods of Pattern Extraction for Climate Data Using Synthetic Modes. J. Climate 34(18): 7645-7660.

Freychet, N., Hegerl, G., Mitchel, D. & Collins, M. (2021): Future changes in the frequency of temperature extremes may be underestimated in tropical and subtropical regions.
(Accepted/In press) In: Nature Communications Earth & Environment.

Gillett, N. P. et al. (2021): Constraining human contribution to observed warming since the pre-industrial period. Nature Clim. Change. 11(3).

Freychet, N., Hegerl, G., Mitchel, D. & Collins, M. (2021): Future changes in the frequency of temperature extremes may be underestimated in tropical and subtropical regions. Nature Comms. Earth & Environment 2(1).

Fowler, H. J. et al (2021): Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes. Phil. Trans. A 379(2195).

Slater R., Freychet, N. and Hegerl, G. (2021): Substantial changes in the probability of future annual temperature extremes. Atm. Sci. Lett 22(11).

Hegerl G.C., A.P. Ballinger, B.B.B. Booth, L.F. Borchert, L. Brunner, M.G. Donat, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, G.R. Harris, J. Lowe, R. Mahmood, J. Mignot, J.M. Murphy, D. Swingedouw and A. Weisheimer (2021): Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections. Frontiers in Climate 3, 678109.


Lücke, L. J., Schurer, A. P., Wilson, R. & Hegerl, G. C. (2021): Orbital forcing strongly influences seasonal temperature trends during the last millennium. Geophysical Research Letters, 48,4.

Brunner, L., Mcsweeney, C., Ballinger, A. P., Befort, D. J., Benassi, M., Booth, B., Coppola, E., De Vries, H., Harris, G., Hegerl, G. C., Knutti, R., Lenderink, G., Lowe, J., Nogherotto, R., O’reilly, C., Qasmi, S., Ribes, A., Stocchi, P. & Undorf, S., (2020): Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework
In: Journal of Climate. 33, 20, p. 8671-8692

Sherwood S., et al (2020): An Assessment of Earth’s Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence. Reviews of Geophysics. Doi 10.1029/2019RG000678.

Cowan, Hegerl, GC, Schurer, Andrew, Tett, SFB, Vautard, R, Yiou, P, Jezequel, A, Otto, FEL, Harrington, LJ, Ng, B (2020): Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heatwaves across
central United States. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 11.

Cowan, T., Undorf, S., Hegerl, G.C. et al. Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2020).

Schurer A., Ballinger A., Friedman A. and Hegerl G (2020) Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions. Environ. Res. Lett. in press,

Andrew R. Friedman, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Andrew Schurer, Shih-Yu Lee, Wenwen Kong, Wei Cheng, and John C. H. Chiang (2020): Forced and Unforced Decadal Behavior of the Interhemispheric SST Contrast during the Instrumental Period (1881-2012): Contextualizing the Late 1960s-Early 1970s Shift  (10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0102.1) Journal of Climate, vol. 33, no. 9.

Tokarska K., Hegerl G.C., Schurer A.P., Forster P. and Marvel K. (2020): Observational Constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical record. Environ. Res. Lett. 15 (2020) 034043

Lo, Y. T. E., Mitchell, D. M., Bohnenstengel, S. I., Collins, M., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G., Joshi, M. & Stott, P. A. (2020): UK Climate Projections: Summer daytime and night-time urban heat island changes in England’s major cities
, In: Journal of Climate.


Benjamin D. Santer, Céline J. W. Bonfils, Qiang Fu, John C. Fyfe, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Carl Mears, Jeffrey F. Painter, Stephen Po-Chedley, Frank J. Wentz, Mark D. Zelinka & Cheng-Zhi Celebrating the anniversary of three key events in climate change science.  Nature Climate Change 9, 180–182(2019)

Broennimann S., Franke J., Nussbaumer S., Hegerl G. Schurer A. et al (2019): Last phase of the Little Ice Age forced by volcanic eruptions NATURE GEOSCIENCE  12  650Published:

Hegerl GC, Broennimann S., Cowan T, Friedman AR, Hawkins E, Iles CE, Mueller W, Schurer A and Undorf S (2019) Causes of climate change over the historical record Env. Res. Lett. in press

Luecke L., Schurer A., Wilson R and Hegerl GC (2019) Effects of memory biases on variability of temperature reconstructions. J Climate, J Climate 32,  8713–8731. .

Schurer, Andrew; Hegerl, Gabriele; Luterbacher, Juerg; Broennimann, Stefan; Cowan, Tim; Tett, Simon; Zanchettin, Davide; Timmreck, Claudia (2019): Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer” ERL-107102.R1

Santer, B. D., Bonfils, C. J. W., Fu, Q., Fyfe, J. C., Hegerl, G., Mears, C., Painter, J. F., Po-Chedley, S., Wentz, F. J., Zelinka, M. D. & Zou, C-Z. (2019): Celebrating the Anniversary of Three Key Events in Climate Change Science In: Nature Climate Change.

Tokarska, Katarzyna; Hegerl, Gabriele; Schurer, Andrew; Ribes, Aurelien; Fasullo, John (2019): Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise Environ. Res. Lett. 14 (2019) 074020

Harrington LJ, Otto FEL, Cowan T, Hegerl GC Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave” Climate Dynamics (2019).

Vautard R. et a., (2019) Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe. Climate Dynamics 52, 1187–1210

Freychet, N., F.b. Tett, S., Bollasina, M., Wang, K. C. & Hegerl, G. C. (2019): The Local Aerosol Emission Effect on Surface Shortwave Radiation and Temperatures. In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.


Undorf S., Bollasina M.A., Booth B.B.B. and Hegerl, G.C.(2018). Contrasting the effects of the 1850-1975 increase in sulphate aerosols from North America and Europe on the Atlantic in the CESM model. GRL 45, 11930-11940.

Neukom, R., Schurer, A. P., Steiger, N. J., & Hegerl, G. C. (2018). Possible causes of data model discrepancy in the temperature history of the last Millennium . Scientific Reports, 8(1), 7572.

Undorf S., Bollasina M. A., Hegerl G.C. (2018): Impacts of the 1900-74 Increase in Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions from North America and Europe on Eurasian Summer Climate. J Climate 31, 8381-8399.

Freychet, N.; Sparrow, S.; Tett, S. F. B.; et al. (2018): Impacts of Anthropogenic Forcings and El Nio on Chinese Extreme Temperatures ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 35, 994-1002.

Undorf S., D. Polson, M. Bollasina, Y. Ming, A. Schurer and G.C. Hegerl (2018): Detectable impact of local and remote anthropogenic aerosols on the 20th century changes of West African and South Asian monsoon precipitation. J Geophys. Res. 123, 4871-4889 Doi: 10.1029/2017JD027711.

Hegerl G.C., Broennimann S., Schurer A., Cowan T. (2018): The early 20th century warming . WIRES climate change, Vol 9, e522.

Schurer A., Hegerl GC, Ribes A, Polson D, Morice C and Tett SFB (2018):Estimating the transient climate response from observed warming. J Climate, 31, 8645-8663.

Wilcox, L. J.; Yiou, Pascal; Hauser, Mathias; et al. (2018) Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change. CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50, 3537-3555.


Iles C., Hegerl G.C. (2017): Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in Decadal Temperature Trends; Env. Res. Lett. 12, 114010.

Knutti R., Rugenstein M.A.A. and Hegerl G.C. (2017): Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity. Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO3017.

Schurer A., Mann M.E., Hawkins E., Tett S.F.B, Hegerl G.C.(2017):Importance of the Pre-Industrial Baseline in Determining the Likelihood of Exceeding the Paris Limits. Nature Climate Change 7, 563-567 DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3345.

Wilcox L., Yiou P., Hauser M., Lott F., Colfescu I, Dong B. Hegerl G., Shaffrey L, Sutton R and van Oldenborgh G.J. (2017): Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer precipitation of summer 2012 to climate change and other causes. CLimate Dynamics, prov. accepted.

Jana Sillmann, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Noel Keenlyside, Nathalie Schaller, Lisa V. Alexander, Gabriele Hegerl, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Xuebin Zhang and Francis W. Zwiers (2017): Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities. Weather and Climate extremes, Volume: 18 Pages: 65-74 Published: DEC 2017.

Freychet N, Tett SFB, Wang J and Hegerl GC (2017): Summer heat waves over Eastern China: Dynamical processes and trend attribution. Env. Res. Lett. In press.

Hawkins E., Ortega, Suckling, Schurer, Hegerl, Jones, Joshi, Masson-Delmotte, Mignot, Thorne, van Oldenborg (2017) Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial periodBull. Am. Met. Soc. DOI:

Polson D., Hegerl G.C. (2017): Strengthening contrast between precipitation in tropical wet and dry regions. , Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 365-373 doi: 10.1002/2016GL071194.

Brunner L., Hegerl G.C. and Steiner A (2017): Connecting Atmospheric blocking to European temperature extremes in spring J Climate, 30, 585-594.

Anchukaitis K; Rob Wilson; Keith R Briffa; Ulf Buentgen; Edward R Cook; Rosanne D’Arrigo; Nicole Davi; Jan Esper; David Frank; Bjorn Gunnarson; Gabi Hegerl; Samuli Helama; Stefan Klesse; Paul Krusic; Hans Linderholm; Vladimir Myglan; Timothy Osborn; Peng Zhang; Milos Rydval; Lea Schneider; Andrew Schurer; Greg Wiles; Eduardo Zorita, 2017: Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions. Quaternary Science Reviews 163 (2017) 1-22.

Cowan T., Hegerl G. C., Colfescu I., Bollasina M., Purich A and Boschat G (2017): Factors contributing to record-breaking heat waves over the Great Plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl. J Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0436.1.


Wilson R; Keith R Briffa; Ulf Buentgen; Edward R Cook; Rosanne D’Arrigo; Nicole Davi; Jan Esper; David Frank; Bjorn Gunnarson; Gabi Hegerl; Samuli Helama; Stefan Klesse; Paul Krusic; Hans Linderholm; Vladimir Myglan; Timothy Osborn; Peng Zhang; Milos Rydval; Lea Schneider; Andrew Schurer; Greg Wiles; Eduardo Zorita: Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions. Quart. Sci. Reviews 134, p. 1-18.

Polson D., Hegerl G.C. and Solomon S. Precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island records. Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (2016) 074024 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074024

Gillett N. et al., Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP),Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3685-3697, 2016 doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016

D. Zanchettin, M. Khodri, C. Timmreck, M. Toohey, A. Schmidt, E. P. Gerber, G. Hegerl, A. Robock, F. S. Pausata, W. T. Ball, S. E. Bauer, S. Bekki, S. S. Dhomse, A. N. LeGrande, G. W. Mann14, L. Marshall, M. Mills, M. Marchand, U. Niemeier, V. Paulain2, A. Rubino1, A. Stenke11, K. Tsigaridis12, and F. Tummon (2016) The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): Experimental design and forcing input data. GeoScientific Model Development discussion paper, MS No.: gmd-2016-68. Special Issue: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Experimental Design and Organization. GMD special issue: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). 9, 2701-2719, 2016 doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016

Lehner, F., Schurer A. P., Hegerl G. C., Deser C., Froehlicher T. L. (2016): Importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution. Geophys. Res. Lett, Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 2851-2858. doi: 10.1002/2016GL067935.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of CLimate Change. Washington DC: Ntl Ac. Press doi:10.17226/21852. COmmittee: Titley D., Hegerl G., Jacobs K, Mote P.W., Paciorek C.J., Shepherd J.M., Shepherd T.G., Sobel A.H., Walsh J and Zwiers F.W.

Luterbacher J. et al. 2016 (Incl. Hegerl and Schurer): European summer temperatures since Roman times Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (2016) 024001 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001.


PAGES2k-PMIP3 group. Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium. Climate of the 11, 1673-1699. doi:10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015

Iles C. and Hegerl G.C. (2015): Volcanic eruptions affect global streamflow. Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2545.

Hegerl G. (2015): Use of models and observations in event attribution. Perspective in Environ. Res. Lett. 10 (2015) 071001.

Hegerl GC, Black E., Allan R. P., Ingram W.J. Polson D., Trenberth K.E., Chadwick R.S., Arkin P.A. Balan Sarojini B., Becker A., Blyth E., Dai A,, Durack P., Easterling D., Fowler H., Kendon E., Huffman G.J., Liu C., Marsh R., New M., Osborn T.J., Skliris N., Stott P.A.,, Vidale P.L., Wijffels S.E., Wilcox L.J., Willett K., Zhang X. (2015): Quantifying changes in the global water cycle . Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 96, 1097-1115.

Schurer A. P., Hegerl G. C., Obrochta S. P. (2015): Determining the likelihood of 1 pauses and surges in global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 5974-5982.

Core Writing team (incl. Hegerl G.), Pachauri R. and L.A. Meyer (2014) IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp; ISBN 978-92-9169-143-2

Schmetz J.; Bony S.; Boucher O.; Busalacchi A.; Cazenave A.; Dowell M.; Flato G; Hegerl G.; Källén E.; Nakajima T.; Ratier A.; Saunders R.; Slingo J.; Sohn B.; Stevens B.; Zhang P.; Zwiers F. (2015): Climate Symposium 2014: Findings and Recommendations; BAMS, in press.

Krueger O., Tett S.F.B. and Hegerl G. (2015) Evaluation of mechanisms of hot and cold days in climate models over Central Europe , Environmental Research Letters, 10, 014002.

Russon T., Tudhope A., Hegerl G.C. and Collins M. (2015): Inferring changes in ENSO amplitude from proxy records. Geophysical Research Letters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1197–1204, doi:10.1002/2014GL062331.


Iles C. and Hegerl G.C. (2014): The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models.Environmental Research Letters, 9, No. 104012.

Zhang X., G. Hegerl, S. Seneviratne, R. Stewart, F. Zwiers and L. Alexander, 2014: WCRP Grand Challenge: Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes; white paper.

Stott P., Hegerl G.C., Herring S., Hoerling M.P., Peterson T., Zhang X. and Zwiers F.W. (2014): Introduction to explaining events of 2013 from a climate perspective ; Bull. Am. Met. Soc. special supplement to Vol 95, Sept. 2014.

Lennard C. and Hegerl G.C. (2014): Relating changes in synoptic circulation to the surface rainfall response using self-organising maps. Climate Dynamics DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2169-6.

Polson D., Bollasina M., Hegerl G. C. and Wilcox, L.(2014) Decreased monsoon precipitation in the 1 Northern Hemisphere due to anthropogenic aerosols. GRL, 41, 6023–6029, doi:10.1002/2014GL060811.

Hawkins E., Anderson B. Diffenbaugh N., Mahlstein I., Betts R. Hegerl G., Joshi M., Knutti R., McNeall D., Solomon S., Sutton R., Syktus J, Vecchi G (2014): Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates . Brief Communication Arising, Nature 511, 7505; E3-E5.

Hegerl G.C. and Stott P.A. (2014) From Past to Future Warming. Perspective in Science, 314, 844-845.

Russon T., Tudhope A. W., Hegerl G. C., Schurer A. and Collins M (2014): Assessing the significance of changes in ENSO amplitude using variance metrics. J. Climate, 27, 4911-4922.

Hanlon H., Hegerl G. C., and Tett S.F.B (2014): Near-term prediction of impact relevant heatwave extremes. Climatic Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1191-3.

Schurer A., Tett S.F.B and G.C. Hegerl (2014) Small influence of solar variability on climate over the last millennium . Nature GeoScience 7, 104-108, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2040.


Bindoff, N., Stott P. et al., 2013: Detection and Attribution: from global to regional. In: Climate Change, 2013. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker T. et al. (eds.)], Cambridge University Press,, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.

Zhang X. , H. Wan, F. W. Zwiers, G.C. Hegerl and S-K Min(2013) Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence. Geophys. Res. Let 40, 5252 (2013). Science editors choice

Polson D., G.C. Hegerl, R.P. Allan and B. Balan-Sarojini (2013) Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions? Geophys. Res. Let 40, 1-5 doi:10.1002/grl.50923, 2013

Zwiers F.W., Hegerl G.C., Zhang X. and Wen Q.H. (2013) Quantifying the Human and Natural Contributions to Observed Climate Change In: Statistics in Action: A Canadian Perspective [book in conjunction with the Int. Year of Statistics); in press.

Otto A., Otto F.E.L., Boucher O., Church J., Hegerl G., Forster P.M., Gillett, N.P., Gregory J., Johnson G.C., Knutti E., Lewis N., Lohmann U., Marotzke J., Myhre G., Shindell D., Stevens B and Allen M.R. (2013): Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nature Geoscience 6, 415–416 (2013) doi:10.1038/ngeo1836

Iles, C., G.C. Hegerl, A.P. Schurer and X. Zhang (2013) The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation. JGR, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50678, VOL. 118, 8770–8786, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50678.

T. Russon, A. W. Tudhope, G. C. Hegerl, M. Collins, and J. Tindall (2013) Inter-annual tropical Pacific climate variability in an isotope-enabled CGCM: implications for interpreting coral stable oxygen isotope records of ENSO. Clim. Past Discuss., 9, 741-773

Hanlon H., Morak S., Hegerl G.C. (2013): Detection and Prediction of mean and extreme European Summer temperatures with a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 9631–9641, DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50703.

Hanlon H., Hegerl, G.C., Tett, S.F.B., Smith, D. (2013): Can a decadal forecasting system predict temperature extreme indices? J Climate, 26, 3728-3744.

Schurer, A., Hegerl, G.C., Mann, M., Tett, S.F.B., Phipps, S (2013): Separating forced from chaotic variability over the last millennium. J Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00826.1

Polson, D., G. Hegerl, X. Zhang (2013): Causes of robust seasonal land precipitation changes. J Climate, 26, 6679–6697. DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00474.1.

Christidis, N., Stott, P.A., Hegerl G.C. and Betts R. (2013): The role of land use change in the recent warming of daily extreme temperatures. GRL, 40, 1–6, doi:10.1002/grl.50159.

Morak, S., Hegerl, N. Christidis (2013): Detectable Changes in Temperature Extremes. Journal of Climate.26, 1561-1574

Zanchettin D, Timreck C, Bothe O. Lorenz S.J., Hegerl G.C., Graf H.-F., Luterbacher J., Jungklaus J (2013): Delayed Winter Warming: A decadal dynamical response to strong volcanic eruptions. GRL 40, 204-209.


L. Goddard1*, A. Kumar2, A. Solomon3, D. Smith4, G. Boer5, P. Gonzalez1, C. Deser6, S. Mason1, B. Kirtman7, R. Msadek8, R. Sutton9, E. Hawkins9, T. Fricker10, S. Kharin5, W. Merryfield5, G. Hegerl11, C. Ferro10, D. Stephenson10, G.A. Meehl6, T. Stockdale12, R. Burgman7, A. Greene1, Y. Kushnir13, M. Newman3, J. Carton14, I. Fukumori15, D. Vimont16, T. Delworth8 (2012): Verification Framework for Interannual-to-Decadal Prediction Experiments. Climate Dynamics, Clim Dyn 40:245–272

Mahlstein I., Hegerl G.C. and Solomon, S. (2012): Emerging local warming signals in observational data. GRL 39, L21711, doi:10.1029/2012GL053952, 2012

Zwiers, FW, LV Alexander, GC Hegerl, J Kossin, TR Knutson, P Naveau, N Nicholls, C Schar, SI Seneviratne, X Zhang (2012): Challenges in Estimating and Understanding Recent Changes in the Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Climate and Weather Events. Submitted for inclusion in an edited compilation of community papers commissioned for the WCRP Open Science Conference, 24-28 October 2011, Denver, CO, USA.

Zwiers, FW, GC Hegerl, S-K Min, X Zhang, 2012: Historical Context. In Peterson, TC, PA Stott, S Herring, Eds., 2012: Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc, July 2012, 1041-1066, 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1.

Noake, K., D. Polson, G. C. Hegerl and X. Zhang (2012): Changes in seasonal land precipitation during the latter twentieth century. GRL 39, L03706.


Hegerl, G.C. and T.R. Russon (2011): Using the Past to Predict the Future? Science, 2011, science.1214828.

Hegerl, G.C., F.W. Zwiers and C. Tebaldi (2011): Patterns of change: Whose fingerprint is seen in global warming. ERL, 6 (2011) 031002. Highlighted in ERL Highlights of 2011

Zhang, X, L. Alexander, G.C. Hegerl, P.D. Jones, A. Klein-Tank, T.C. Peterson, B. Trewin and F. Zwiers (2011): Indices for Monitoring Changes in Extremes based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data. WIREs Clim Change 2011. doi: 10.1002/wcc.147

Hegerl, G.C., Stott, P. A., Solomon S. and Zwiers, F.W. (2011) Comment on Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster by J.A. Curry and P.J. Webster. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 92, 1683-1685.

Min, S.-K, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers and G. C. Hegerl (2011): Human contribution to more intense precipitation extremes. Nature 470, 376-379.

Hegerl, G.C. and F.W. Zwiers (2011): Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change. WIRES: Climate Change, 2, 570-591.

Hegerl, G. C, J. Luterbacher, F. Gonzalez-Ruoco, S.F.B. Tett and E. Xoplaki (2011): Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures with supplementary material. Nature GeoScience, 4, 99-103

Lackner, B., A. Steiner, G. Kirchengast and G. Hegerl (2011): Atmospheric Climate Change Detection by Radio Occultation Data Using a Fingerprinting Method. J. Climate, 24, 5275-5291.

Morak, S., Hegerl G. Kenyon J (2011): Detectable Regional Changes in the Number of Warm Nights. Geophys. Res. Let., 38, L17703.

Hegerl, G., H. Hanlon, and C Beierkuhnlein, 2011: Elusive Extremes. Perspective in Nature GeoScience, 4, 142-143.

Hegerl, G.C., 2011: Global warming: it is not only size that matters. Perspective in Environ. Res. Let. 6 (2011) 031002, 2pp. Highlighted in ERL Highlights of 2011


Stott, P. A., G. Jones, N. Christidis, F. Zwiers, G. Hegerl, and H. Shiogama (2010): Single-step attribution of increasing frequencies of very warm regional temperatures to human influence” Atmospheric Science Letters 11: doi 10.1002/asl.315

Solomon, A., L. Goddard, A. Kumar, J. Carton, C. Deser, I. Fukumori, A. Greene, G. Hegerl, B. Kirtman, Y. Kushnir, M. Newman, D. Smith, D. Vimont, T. Delworth and T. Stockdate (2010): Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc, 92, 141ff

Kenyon, J and G. C. Hegerl (2010): Influence of models of climate variability on global precipitation extremes. J. Climate 23, 6248-6262.


Hegerl G.C., Hoegh-Guldberg O.,Casassa G., Hoerling M., Kovats S., Parmesan C., Pierce D and Stott, P: Good Practice Guidance Paper on Detection and Attribution Related to Anthropogenic Climate Change, Guidance paper, IPCC Good practice Guidance Paper in:IPCC Expert Meeting on Detection and Attribution Related to Anthropogenic Climate Change Meeting report; The World Meteorological Organization Geneva, Switzerland; 8pp 14-16 September 2009

Portmann R. W., S. Solomon and G.C. Hegerl (2009): Linkages between climate change, extreme temperature and precipitation across the United States . PNAS, 2009, cgi doi 10.1073 pnas.0808533106.

Meehl, G.A., L Goddard, J Murphy, R.J. Stouffer, G Boer, G Danabasoglu, K Dixon, MA Gorgetta, AM Greene, E. Hawkins, G Hegerl, D Karoly, N Keenlyside, M Kimoto, B Kirtman, A Navarra, R Pulwarty, D Smith, D Stammer and T Stockdale (2009): Decadal Prediction: Can it be skillful? BAMS, 2009, 1467-1486.

G. Hegerl and S. Solomon (2009): Risks of Climate Engineering, Science, 325, 955-966, August 2009.


Knutti, R and G. Hegerl (2008):The equilibrium sensitivity of Earth’s temperature to radiation changes. Nature GeoSciences,(1), no 11, 735-743.

Knutti, R., M. R. Allen, P. Friedlingstein, J. M. Gregory, G.C. Hegerl, G. A. Meehl, M. Meinshausen, J. M. Murphy, G.-K. Plattner, S. C. B. Raper, T. F. Stocker, P. A. Stott, H. Teng and T. M;. L. Wigley (2008): A review of uncertainties in global temperature projections over the twenty-first century. Journal of Climate, 21, 2651-2663.

Kenyon, J and G. C. Hegerl (2008): The Influence of ENSO, NAO and NPI on global temperature extremes. J. Climate 21, 3872-3889, doi 10.1175/2008JCLI2125.1

Allen, M. R., N. Andronova, B. Booth, S. Dessai, D. Frame, C. Forest, J. Gregory, G. Hegerl, R. Knutti, C. Piani, and D. Stainforth (2008): Observational constraints on climate sensitivity, chapter 29, in: Avoiding dangerous climate change, in press.

Zwiers, F. and G. Hegerl, 2008: Attributing cause and effect, News and Views, Nature 453, 296-297

Lavine, M., G. C. Hegerl and S. Lozier (2008): Discussion of Reified Bayesian Modelling and Inference for Physical Systems. J. Stat. Planning and Inference. In press.

Zhang, X., Francis Zwiers and G. Hegerl (2008): The Influence of data precision on the calculation of temperature percentile indices. Int. J of Climatology, in press.

Gutowski, W. J; G.C. Hegerl, G. J. Holland, T. R. Knutson, L. O. Mearns, R. J. Stouffer, P. J. Webster, M. F. Wehner and F. W. Zwiers (2008)): Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and Projections of Future Changes. In Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, US Climate Change Science Program SAP 3.3, T. Karl et al., Eds. pp. 81-116.

Gillett, N., D. Stone, P. Stott and G. Hegerl (2008): Attribution of polar warming to human influences. Nature GeoSciences, 1, 750 – 754 (2008) .

Sang, H., A. E. Gelfand, C. Lennard, G. Hegerl and Bruce Hewitson (2008): Interpreting self-organizing maps through space-time models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 2, 1194-1216


Hegerl G. C., T. Crowley, M. Allen, W. T. Hyde, H. Pollack, J. Smerdon, E. Zorita (2007): Detection of human influence on a new 1500yr climate reconstruction, J. Climate, 20, 650-666.

EBM Simulations used in that paper: aerosols greenhouse gases solar volcanism

Kharin, V., F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang and G. C. Hegerl (2007): Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J. Climate, 20, 1417-1444, doi 10.1175/JCLI4066.1.

Zhang, X., F. W. Zwiers, G. C. Hegerl, N. Gillett, H. Lambert, S. Solomon, P. Stott and T. Nozawa (2007): Detection of Human Influence on 20th Century Precipitation Trends. Nature, 468, 448, 461-466

Forster, P., G. Hegerl, R. Knutti, V. Ramaswamy, S. Solomon, T.F. Stocker, P. Stott, and F. Zwiers, 2007: Assessing uncertainty in climate simulations. Nature Reports Climate Change, 4, 63-64.

Hegerl G. C., T. Crowley, W. T. Hyde and D. Frame (2007): Reply to “Uncertainties in Climate sensitivity. Nature 446, E2, doi 10.1038/nature05708.

Hegerl, G. C., F. W. Zwiers, P. Braconnot, N. P Gillett, Y. Luo, J. Marengo, N. Nicholls, J. E. Penner and P. A, Stott: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change. In: S. Solomon et al. (ed.) Climate Change 2007. The Fourth Scientific Assessment, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 663-745.

Forster, P., G. Hegerl, R. Knutti, V. Ramaswamy, S. Solomon, T.F. Stocker, P. Stott, and F. Zwiers, 2007: Assessing uncertainty in climate simulations. Nature Reports Climate Change, 4, 63-64.


Hegerl G. C., T. Karl, M. Allen, N. Bindoff, N. Gillett, D. Karoly and F. Zwiers (2006): Climate Change detection and attribution: Beyond mean temperature signals. J. Climate, invited contribution through CLIVAR, J. Climate 19, 5088-5077 (to come out Oct. 15).

Juckes, M., M. Allen, K. Briffa, J. Esper, G. Hegerl, A. Moberg, T. Osborn, S. Weber and E. Zorita (2006): Millennial Temperature Reconstruction Intercomparison and Evaluation. Climate of the Past Discussions, Vol. 2, pp 1001-1049, 26-10-2006.

Hegerl G. C., T. Crowley, W. T. Hyde and D. Frame (2006): Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions of the last seven centuries, Nature, 440, doi:10.1038/nature04679.

Allen M.R., Gillett N. P., Kettleborough J. A., Hegerl G.C., Schnur R., Stott P., Boer G., Covey C., Delworth T., Jones G.S., Mitchell J. F. B. and Barnett T. (2006): Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature. Surv. Geophysics, vol. 27, No. 5, 491-544.

Prior to 2006

Hegerl, G. C. and N. L. Bindoff (2005): Warming the world’s oceans. Perspective in Science, 309, 254-255.

The International Ad Hoc Detection Group (T. Barnett, F. Zwiers, G. Hegerl and others) (2005): Detecting and Attributing External Influences on the Climate System: A Review of Recent Advances. J Climate 16, 1291-1314.

Lee, T. K., Zwiers F., Hegerl, G. Zhang, X and Tsao M. (2005): A Bayesian approach to climate change detection and attribution. J. Climate, 18, 2429–2440.

Groisman, P., R. Knight, D. R. Easterling, T. R. Karl, G. Hegerl and Vy. N. Razuvaev (2005): Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J. Climate, 18, 1326-1350.

Zhang, X., G. Hegerl, F. Zwiers and J. Kenyon (2005): Avoiding inhomogeneity in percentile-based indices of temperature change. J. Climate, 18, 1641-1651.

Christidis, N., P.A. Stott, S. Brown, G. C. Hegerl and J. Caesar (2005): Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the 20th century. Geophys. Res. Let., 32, L20716, doi:10.1029/2005GL023885

Hegerl, G. C., F. Zwiers, S. Kharin and Peter Stott (2004): Detectability of anthropogenic changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. J. Climate, 17, 3683-3700.

Karoly D.J., J.F.B. Mitchell, M. R. Allen, G. Hegerl, J. Marengo and F. Zwiers (2003): Comment on Soon et al. (2001) ‘ Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: unknowns and uncertainties. Climate Research 24, 91-92.

Hegerl G. C., T. J. Crowley, S. K. Baum, K.-Y. Kim and W. T. Hyde (2003): Detection of volcanic, solar and greenhouse gas signals in paleo-reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric temperature. Geophys,. Res. Lett 30(5). 1242. doi: 10.1029/2002GL016635

Crowley, T. C., S. K. Baum, K.-Y. Kim, G. C. Hegerl and W. T. Hyde (2003), Modeling Ocean Heat Content Changes During the Last Millennium . Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1932, doi:10.1029/2003GL017801.

Hegerl, G. C., G. Meehl, C. Covey, M. Latif, B. McAvaney and R. Stouffer, 2003b: 20C3M: CMIP collecting data from 20th century coupled model simulations. CLIVAR-Exchanges 26, available from

Hegerl G.C. and Allen M. R. (2002): Origins of model-data discrepancies in optimal fingerprinting. J. Climate, 15, 1348-1356.

Gillett, N.P., Hegerl G.C., Allen M.R., Stott P.A. and Schnur R. (2002): Reconciling two approaches to the detection of anthropogenic influence on climate. J. Climate, 15, 326-329

Hegerl G. C. and Wallace, J. M. (2002): Influence of patterns of climate variability on the difference between satellite and surface temperature trends. J. Climate, 15, 2412-2428.

Gillett, N. P., Zwiers F. Z., Weaver A. J., Hegerl G. C., Allen M.R. and Stott P. A. (2002): Detecting anthropogenic influence with a multi-model ensemble. Geophys. Res. Let. 29.1029/2002GL015836.

Hegerl G.C., Jones P.D. and Barnett T.P. (2001): Effect of observational sampling error on the detection of anthropogenic climate change. J. Climate, 14, 198-207

Mitchell J. F. B, Karoly D. J., Hegerl G.C., Zwiers F. W., Allen, M. R. and Marengo J. (2001): Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes . In: J. T. Houghton et al. (eds.) Climate Change 2000. The Third Scientific Assessment, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 695-738.

Stouffer R. J., Hegerl G. C. and Tett S. F. B. (2000): A comparison of Surface Air Temperature Variability in Three 1000-Year coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Integrations. J. Climate, 13, 513-537.

Hegerl G. C., Stott P., Allen M., Mitchell J. F. B., Tett S. F. B. and Cubasch U. (2000): Detection and attribution of climate change: Sensitivity of results to climate model differences. Climate Dynamics, 16, 737-754.

Thompson D. W. J., Wallace J.M. and Hegerl G. C. (2000): Annular Modes in the Extratropical Circulation. Part II Trends. J. Climate, 13, 1018-1036.

Chang P., Saravanan R. Ji L., Hegerl G.C. (2000): The Effect of Local Sea-Surface Temperature on Atmospheric Circulation over the Tropical Atlantic Sector. J. Climate, 13, 2195-2216.

Gillett, N. P., Hegerl G. C., Allen M. R., Stott P. A. (2000): Implications of changes in the Northern Hemispheric circulation for the detection of anthropogenic climate change. Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 993-996.

Barnett T. P., Hegerl G.C., Knutson T. and Tett S.F.B. (2000): Uncertainty Levels in Predicted Patterns of Anthropogenic Climate Change. J. Geophys. Res. 105, 15 525-15 542.

Barnett T. P., Hasselmann K., Chelliah M., Delworth, T., Hegerl G. C., Jones P. D., Rasmusson E., Roeckner, E., Ropelewski C., Santer B. D. and Tett, S.F.B. (1999): Detection and Attribution of Recent Climate Change: A Status Report. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 80, 2631-2660.

Jones P.D. and Hegerl, G. C. (1998): Comparisons of two methods of removing anthropogenic-related variability from the near-surface observational temperature field. J. Geophysical. Res., 103, 13777-13786.

Hegerl G. C. (1998): The past as a guide to the future. Nature 392, 758-759.

Hegerl G.C. and North G. R. (1997): Comparison of statistically optimal approaches to detecting anthropogenic climate change. J. Climate, 10, 1125-1133.

von Storch J., Kharim V., Cubasch U., Hegerl G.C., Schriever D., von Storch H. and Zorita E. (1997): A 1260-year control integration with the coupled ECHAM1/LSG general circulation model. J. Climate, 10, 1525-1543.

Cubasch U., Voss R., Hegerl G.C.,Waszkewitz J. and Crowley T. J. (1997): Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Climate Dynamics, 13, 757-767.

Hegerl G. C., Hasselmann K., Cubasch U., Mitchell, J. F. B., Roeckner E., Voss, R. and Waszkewitz J. (1997): Multi-fingerprint detection and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas, greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol and solar forced climate change. Climate Dynamics, 13, 613-634.

Hegerl G.C., v. Storch H., Hasselmann K., Santer B. D., Cubasch U. and Jones P. D. (1996): Detecting greenhouse gas induced Climate Change with an optimal fingerprint method. J. Climate 9, 2281-2306.

Cubasch U., Hegerl G. C., Hellbach A., Höck H., Mikolajewicz U., Santer B. D. and Voss R. (1995): A Climate Change simulation starting from 1935, Climate Dynamics, 11: 71-84.

Cubasch U., Waszkewitz J., Hegerl G. C. and Perlwitz, J. (1995): Regional climate changes as simulated in time-slice experiments. Climatic Change 31: 273-304.

Schmidbauer O., Casacuberta F., Castro M. J., Höge H., Hegerl G. C., Sanchez J. A., Zlokarnik I. (1993): Articulatory Representation and Speech Technology, Language and Speech, 36 (2,3): 331-351.


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