Government contingency planning for a future pandemic has been undertaken at frequent intervals since before 2005. The Innogen Institute was involved in one such initiative in 2008 in the context of the H5N1 ‘bird flu’ event, looking at the likely viability of the UK’s pandemic preparedness plans. We looked at the systemic interactions across a broad range of technical and societal drivers that would have an impact on the progression of the pandemic and on state of the UK economy. We particularly noted the mutual incompatibility of the two key government messages – ‘social distancing’ to avoid infection and ‘business as usual’ to protect the economy, and predicted most of the economic impacts that are arising today from government reactions internationally to Covid-19.
The full paper can be accessed here.