The PROTECT project, backed by the Advanced Research + Invention Agency, will develop new methods in computational statistics, signal processing, and AI to forecast when Earth’s climate systems may cross thresholds leading to a catastrophic change.

Professor Víctor Elvira, Chair of Statistics and Data Science, has been awarded £1 million by Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA) to investigate and forecast climate tipping points — thresholds that, once crossed, will likely lead to cascading and irreversible changes to Earth’s climate.

Major parts of the Earth system are at risk of crossing climate tipping points within the next century, with severe consequences for biodiversity, food security, agriculture, and humanity. For example, if polar temperatures keep rising, ice sheets will melt rapidly, causing sea levels to rise. This will also thaw permafrost, releasing greenhouse gases that will further accelerate climate change, including even more rapid thawing of ice sheets.

Many of these tipping points are part of complex and interconnected systems that makes their early warning signs hard to predict. Víctor says, “Understanding climate tipping points is crucial for anticipating irreversible changes. This project advances computational methods for detecting and predicting these tipping points, with a strong emphasis on scientific understanding. We also focus on quantifying our uncertainties about the future — not just predicting what can be predicted, but also determining what cannot and why.”

The project, named PROTECT, proposes robust learning approaches for probabilistic forecasting of climate tipping points, focusing on data integration, probabilistic modelling, and computational strategies. The framework is grounded in sound statistical methodologies, leveraging recent advances in machine learning, statistics, and signal processing.

PROTECT was funded as part of a five-year £81 million ARIA initiative, bringing together 27 international research teams to work collaboratively to create an early warning system for tipping points in climate.

Learn more about AI research in our School:

Applications and case studies – AI in Maths | School of Mathematics

More on ARIA and forecasting climate tipping points:

Early warning system for climate tipping points given £81m kickstart | The Guardian

Forecasting Tipping Points | Advanced Research + Invention Agency

Víctor Elvira secures £1m ARIA funding to forecast climate tipping points / School of Mathematics by blogadmin is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0

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