In recent months the world has provided ample opportunity to re-test our understanding of how we perceive it. It increasingly feels like the threat model is shifting from climate change related risk to encompass a more immediate international challenge.
I’d like to consider what this might mean for UK infrastructure investment and propose and outline model and suggested approach.
Context
First let’s survey the main themes of recent months:
- Barriers to Trade and Investment Uncertainty –
Trump’s long signalled preference for using tariffs as a (possibly misguided) means of protectionism has become reality. On April 2nd 2025 he introduced a range of tariffs running from 10% to 49% – levels not seen the 1930 Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act, legislation widely believed to have exacerbated the Great Depression. $ 2.5Tn were wiped off markets in the subsequent 48 hours.
Within a week he had halted the tariffs with the exception of China. US consumer confidence plummeted to its lowest level in almost five years and the US economy contracted by 0.3% in annualised terms.
The first theme to highlight is the mercurial nature of US tariff policy drives loss of confidence which is likely to translate to an environment adverse to long term investment.
- Re-Positioning of Alliances –
President Trump has demonstrated increasing willingness to erode relationships with allies and to favour Russia’s position on Ukraine and in so doing potentially embolden Russia. The Economist refers to the new great game in International Relations where intrinsic sovereignty of small states is not respected and where countries possessing enough economic/ military power have the right to exercise that power in spheres of influence.
The second theme is that’s the US’s commitment to NATO and protection of the UK afforded by this may no longer be taken for granted.
So What for UK infrastructure ?
I’ve spoken previously about vulnerabilities of UK infrastructure, related to Offshore power generation. We can look to recent history to provide fresh insight on the emergent challenge.
- Robertson (1987) in ‘British and American approaches to Intelligence’ makes the case that in the 1930s the UK government were ‘unsurprised yet equally unready’ by Germany’s actions in Europe leading to the declaration of war. Intelligence product outlining the threat was available but a sense of urgency for the coming struggle was somewhat lacking. As late as 1939, the Air Ministry proposed plans to rebuild the RAF over a seven year period, the Admiralty was proposing a nine year plan for similar preparation (p.92)
- Tony Blair, reflecting on his time in office in ‘On leadership’ (2024) states that when considering what is needed for investment in a country the ‘ answer is simple – predictability and stability…. predictable rules, properly applied, contracts awarded without corruption’ (p.112). It might be argued that the US is moving away from this position.
The themes of recent months should in my view provide a fresh impetus for the UK to:
- Avoid the 1930s surprise : Carry out regular systemic assessment of risk posed by the new international environment to all aspects of UK infrastructure.
- Act to counter instability Provide an environment of trade and investment stability to underpin the investment needed to secure infrastructure from the emerging threats.
Towards a Model for UK infrastructure resilience
Id propose a 4-step model for countering the emergent threats ina rapidly changing world :
- Threat Data Gathering > increase data gathering to understand the threats posed.
- Analysis of Threat > Convene a permanent assessment of the threats with a specific lens of UK infrastructure and utilities.
- Action > including National awareness, skilling and prioritisation of effort.
- Stable Environment for Investment > continue to build UK capacity and above all promote stability and predictability for the investment needed.
It may well be that this activity is underway, and all in hand.
History and our capacity for under-preparedness indicates it may not.
